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Retail sales month-over-month from the Census Department, chart by Mish

The Bloomberg Econoday economists’ consensus was for retail sales to increase 1.4 percent in March based on “front-running tariff price increases on durable goods, especially autos, in March.”

The consensus estimate hit the number on the nose.

Advance Retail Sales

The Advance Retail Sales report for March shows the expected front-running of tariffs.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $734.9 billion, up 1.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2024.

Total sales for the January 2025 through March 2025 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2025 to February 2025 percent change was unrevised from up 0.2 percent.

Retail trade sales were up 1.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2025, and up 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 8.8 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year, while nonstore retailers were up 4.8 percent (±1.4 percent) from March 2024.

The key phrase is in italics. These are nominal sales. It’s real (inflation-adjusted) sales that feed GDP.

Month-Over-Month Details

• Total: 1.4
• Excluding Motor Vehicles 0.5
• Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.8
• Motor Vehicles: 5.3
• Food Service: 1.8
• Gas Stations: -2.5
• Nonstore: 0.1
• Department Stores: -0.3
• Food Stores: 0.2
• General Merchandise 0.6

Advance Retail Sales Millions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted

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Advance Retail Sales Select Categories

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Retail Sales Motor Vehicles and Parts 2025-03

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Motor vehicles are counted as sales when they are shipped from the manufacturer to the dealer, not when a consumer actually buys them.

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales

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Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail

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The strong consumer is little more than a mirage of inflation.

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