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Advance retail sales data from commerce department, chart by Mish

We have an interesting set of Advance Retail Sales numbers from the Commerce Department this morning.

Advance Retail Sales Key Details (Commerce Dept and Mish Notes)

• CD: Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month.
• CD: The May 2024 to June 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent) to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent).
• Mish: Motor vehicles sales rose 3.6 percent after falling 3.4 percent in June.
• Mish: Nonstore sales rose 0.2 percent after rising 2.2 percent last month.
• Mish: Food rose 0.9 percent.
• Mish: Excluding motor vehicles, sales rose 0.4 percent.

Nominal Advance Retail Sales Millions of Dollars

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Advance Retail Sales Major Categories

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Motor vehicle sales are counted when shipped from the manufacturer to the dealer no matter how long the cars sit on the lots. This grossly distorts auto sales.

Did manufactures ramp up ICE cars to as EVs sat on the lots unsold?

Spotlight on Motor Vehicle Sales

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Motor vehicle sales have not gone anywhere since December of 2022.

In the same timeframe, nonstore sales are up 15.7 percent,

Food and Beverage Stores vs Eating Places

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Consumers hit a brick wall on eating out in late 2023.

Mirage of Inflation

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Inflation and three rounds of free money fiscal stimulus accounts for all of surge in spending since 2020.

Here’s the key phrase from the commerce department: Advance Estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month.

The above chart shows how much of the surge is due to inflation. Real sales are still below the covid free money spike of 233,400 in 2021.

Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge in the Second Quarter

Meanwhile, please note Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge in the Second Quarter

Spending is a mirage of debt and inflation. But credit stress is rising.

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