Advance Retail Sales from Commerce Department

Economists expected retail sales would rise of 0.7 percent in April. 

The Commerce Department reported 0.4 percent but revised March from -1.0 percent to -0.7 percent. That would mostly be a wash but the Commerce Department revised February-to-March sales  a bit lower.

Real sales, adjusted for price increases, were flat.

Please consider the Advance Retail Sales Report for April 2023.

Advance Retail Sales Details

• Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $686.1 billion, up 0.4 percent from the previous month, and up 1.6 percent above April 2022. 
• Total sales for the February 2023 through April 2023 period were up 3.1 percentfrom the same period a year ago. 
• The February 2023 to March 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.6 percent to down 0.7 percent. 
• Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent from March 2023, and up 0.5 percentabove last year. 
• Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 9.4 percent from April 2022. 

The key phrase is "adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes."

Consumers have to spend more money just to buy the same amount of goods and services as last month.

Inflation Adjusted Sales Last Six Months

• November: -1.5 Percent
• December: -0.8 Percent
• January: +2.3 Percent
• February: -1.1 Percent
• March: -0.8 Percent
• April: + 0.0 Percent

Nominal Advance Retail Sales

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales In Millions of Dollars

Real retail sales peaked a year ago, and that's what drives GDP. Widespread talk of a robust consumer is nonsense. 

Meanwhile, president Biden is doing everything in his power and many things that aren't to drive up prices. 

For discussion, please see The Inflation Reduction Act Price Jumps From $385 Billion to Over $1 Trillion

Also note yesterday's hoot of the day: The UAW Demands a "Just Transition" to Electric Vehicles.

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