The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December released this morning showed growth improvement over the November increase. Headline sales came in at 0.6% month-over-month to one decimal, and November number was revised upward from 0.1% to 0.2%. Today's headline number was slightly below the Investing.com consensus of 0.7%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.2% MoM, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 0.5%, but the October Core was revised upward from 0.2% to 0.3%.

Here is the introduction from today's report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2016, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $469.1 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.9 percent) above December 2015. Total sales for the 12 months of 2016 were up 3.3 percent (±0.6 percent) from 2015. Total sales for the October 2016 through December 2016 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2016 to November 2016 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2016, and up 4.3 percent (±0.7 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 13.2 percent (±1.8 percent) from December 2015, while Miscellaneous stores were up 7.1 percent (±4.6 percent) from last year. [view full report]

The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.

The year-over-year percent change provides another perspective on the historical trend. Here is the headline series.

Core Sales

Here is the year-over-year version of Core Retail Sales.

"Control" Purchases

The next two charts illustrate retail sales "Control" purchases, which is an even more "Core" view of retail sales. This series excludes Motor Vehicles & Parts, Gasoline, Building Materials as well as Food Services & Drinking Places. The popular financial press typically ignores this series, but it a more consistent and reliable reading of the economy.

Here is the same series year-over-year. Note that the current level is fractionally below the highlighted values at the start of the two recessions since the inception of this series in the early 1990s.

For a better sense of the reduced volatility of the "Control" series, here is a YoY overlay with the headline retail sales.

Bottom Line: December sales showed a strong increase over the previous month, but slightly below holiday season hopes. Later this week we'll take a close look at Real Retail Sales after the November Consumer Price Index is released.