According to the Census Department Advance Estimate, retail sales rose 0.4 percent in October.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $718.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023.

Total sales for the August 2024 through October 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2024 to September 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

The key line above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.” These are nominal sales, not adjusted for inflation.

Month-Over-Month Nominal Details

• Retail Sales: +0.4%
• Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gasoline: +0.1%
• Motor Vehicles: +1.6%
• Food Stores: +0.1%
• Nonstore Merchants (e.g. Amazon): +0.3%
• Gas Stations: +0.1%

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales in Millions of Dollars

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales

Inflation-adjusted sales put things in proper perspective.

However, the last two months are undoubtedly hot. This puts another spotlight on Fed rate cuts.

CPI Rises 0.2 Percent But Another Hot Month for Shelter

November 13:  CPI Rises 0.2 Percent But Another Hot Month for Shelter

The Fed will have a tough go of things if there is lack of progress on the cost of shelter.

November 14: Producer Price Index (PPI) Increases 0.2 Percent, With Services Up 0.3 Percent

PPI service prices, which the Fed is more concerned about, are not headed in the right direction.

Neither the CPI nor the PPI reports should inspire confidence in a mass of rate cuts by the Fed.

Also see Rate Cut Odds Plunge as Powell Signals Willingness to Move Slower

Powell cites a solid economy and will cut rates at a slower pace “carefully”.

Don’t be surprised if the Fed starts signaling no cut in December. Any additional strong data might do that.

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