Retail Earnings Mixed Thus Far, Wal-Mart, Nordstrom And Kohl’s Out Tomorrow

Fossil (FOSL) reported third quarter results last night, blowing past both the Wall Street and Estimize consensus. Earnings per share of $1.96 grew 24% YoY and far exceeded Wall Street’s expectation of $1.82, the Estimize consensus of $1.84, and even their own guidance of $1.81. Revenues also impressed, coming in at $894.5M, up 10% from Q3 2013 and nearly $12M higher than the Estimize consensus and $16M higher than the Street. Despite the good news, the company did tighten its earnings guidance and slightly lowered revenue and margin expectations for 2014. Robust performance during the quarter was due to gains in watch and jewelry sales, which saw improvements in each business region: North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific, mostly driven by Michael Kors. The company also announced the renewal of its global licensing agreement with Michael Kors through 2024.  During the third quarter, Fossil bought back 1.3M shares.

Results from Macy’s (M) this morning were mixed. While the company reported EPS of $0.61, beating estimates and growing 30% YoY, revenues of $6.195B showed a decline of 1% from the year-ago quarter, and same store sales were down 1.4%. As a result, the company lowered EPS guidance for 2014 to a range of $4.25 - $4.35, below previous guidance of $4.40 to $4.50. Despite the tough quarter, CEO Terry Lundgren is bullish on the fourth quarter, claiming that Macy’s holiday product assortment and new strategies, including in-store pickup services, will improve business. The company also announced that they will be opening at 6 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day, two hours earlier than last year, in an attempt to boost holiday sales.

Tomorrow we’ll be watching out for results from Wal-MartNordstrom and Kohl’s.

How Are We Doing?

Expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter stand at 11.6%. Revenues are anticipated to come in with 4.9% growth. All 10 sectors are anticipated to post positive YoY growth on both the earnings and revenue front.

Leaders

Earnings:

Energy (14.6%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (14.6%)

Consumer Discretionary (14.5%). Notable industry: Internet Retailers (25.3%)

Health Care (13.9%). Notable industry: Biotechnology (45.1%)

Revenues:

Health Care (12.1%). Notable industry: Biotech (39.0%).

Information Technology (7.1%). Notable industry: Software (15.7%)

Laggards

Earnings:

Utilities (2.8%). Notable industry: Gas Utilities (-8.3%).

Telecommunication Services (1.4%): All five companies are within Diversified Telecom Services. Only Verizon posted y­o­y growth.

Revenues:

Energy (1.2%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (­0.5%).

Materials (2.4%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products (­-18.3%).

Beat/Miss/Match

Earnings: With over 90% of the S&P 500 reporting thus far, 56% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 33% have missed and 11% have met. This is compared to Wall Street estimates, of which 72% of companies have beat on the bottom­-line, 21% have missed and 7% have met.

Revenue: 52% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 48% have missed, and 0% have met. For revenues, 59% of companies have beat the Wall Street estimate, while 41% have missed.

Disclosure: There can be no assurance that the information we considered is accurate or complete, nor can there be any assurance that our assumptions are correct.

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