Recent Gold Price Volatility Requires A Broader Vew
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Gold investors feel like they have been on a rollercoaster this month, as price has ranged from as low as $1,810 to as high as $1,932. Sometimes, a pick-up in volatility means that a big move lies ahead. Most often, an increase in volatility is a wise opportunity to take a step back and look at the bigger picture and see where gold price is most likely headed - and that's what we'll do this week.
Starting with a quarterly chart going back to 2010, we can see that price has spent the last 14 quarters forming a massive bull flag right on top of the historic high set in 2011. When a price consolidates just below/above an important trendline or price point, it often means an impulsive resolution will follow when it finally breaks out. In this case, the bull flag measured move is around $2,900!
Zooming the quarterly chart out to Gold's historic bottom in 2001, we can see a number of positives for the yellow metal. In addition to a massive Cup & Handle pattern that remains perfectly intact, we can see that despite the volatility in price this month Gold has not violated its near 23-year support line. Also of note is that Gold has stayed above its 36-month moving average, something the price always has done when it is in a sustained uptrend. Should its historic support line and the 36-month moving average continue to provide support, Gold may be breaking out of its Cup & Handle sooner than later, and that would make $3,000 and beyond quite achievable over the next couple of years.
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