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The BEA’s Advance Estimate of Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 was 3.0 percent up from -0.5 percent.

Advance Estimates

• GDP: 3.0 percent
• Real Final Sales: 6.3 percent
• Real Final Domestic Sales: 1.1 percent
• Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 1.2 percent

Percentage Point Contributions to GDP

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Contribution Details

• PCE Services: 0.53
• PCE Goods: 0.46
• Government: 0.08
• Residential Investment: -0.19
• Nonresidential Investment: 0.27
• Change in Private Inventories (CIPI): -3.17
• Exports: -0.19
• Imports: 5.18

Imports added 5.18 percentage points to the GDP calculation (not to GDP). Imports never add or subtract from GDP because they are not domestic.

However, the BEA counts all sales as domestic sales so it must then subtract imports from its calculation.

Trade data has seriously distorted GDP in ways never seen before.

If one looks at Real Final Private Domestic Sales we have had two muddle-through quarters at 1.9 percent in Q1 and 1.2 percent in Q2.

Last quarter was much better than touted and this quarter is much worse.

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