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Data from BEA, chart by Mish

GDI is not available in the initial (advance) GDP estimate for each quarter.

Today the Advance Estimate of GDP from the BEA is an increase of 2.8 percent at an annualized quarterly rate.

Key Contributions to GDP

• PCE Goods: +1.25
• PCE Services: +1.21
• Nonresidential Fixed Investment: +0.46
• Residential Fixed Investment: -0.21
• Change in Private Inventories: -0.17
• Net Exports: -0.56
• Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: +0.85

Real GDP, Real Personal Income, Real GDI 2024 Q3 Advance

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Real Personal Income rose from 19,737 to 19,825 by my calculations. That’s a quarterly gain of 0.44 percent (not annualized).

GDP-GDI Gap Shrinks

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The enormous gap between GDP and GDI that I had been discussing has vanished. This happened in the third revision to the second quarter 2024 data by the BEA, not this month.

Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts
Today’s release presents results from the annual update of the National Economic Accounts (NEAs), which include the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and the Industry Economic Accounts (IEAs). The update includes revised estimates for the first quarter of 2019 through the first quarter of 2024 and resulted in revisions to GDP, GDP by industry, GDI, and their major components. The reference year remains 2017.

With today’s release, most data are available through BEA’s Interactive Data application on the BEA website (www.bea.gov). Refer to “Information on 2024 Annual Updates to the National, Industry, and State and Local Economic Accounts” for the complete table release schedule and a summary of results through 2023, which includes information on methodology changes. A table showing the major current dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income is also provided. An article describing the update in more detail will be forthcoming in the Survey of Current Business.

The updated estimates show that real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent from 2018 to 2023, 0.2 percentage point higher than the previously published estimate. Over the same period, real GDI increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than previously published. The average of real GDP and real GDI over the same period was 2.3 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than previously published.

Many of us expected GDP to be revised lower, not income higher. More revisions are certain, direction unknown.

The Final GDPNow forecast for 2024 Q3 Is 2.8 Percent

Yesterday, I noted The Final GDPNow forecast for 2024 Q3 Is 2.8 Percent.

Pat Higgins, GDPNow creator at the Atlanta Fed has had a hot hand for about two years now.

Congrats!

Higgins will produce an initial forecast for 2024 Q4 shortly.

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