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The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Nowcast essentially became an unofficial forecast today.

The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on October 29, down from 3.3 percent on October 25. After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.04 percentage points to -0.38 percentage points.

Pat Higgins at the Atlanta Fed has had a hot hand for many quarters. His track record has been better than the Blue Chip forecasts for this time.

The model suggests 2.8 percent GDP with 2.9 percent real final sales. The latter is the more important number. The difference is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.

I have not seen such a tight range for an entire quarter like we have seen now.

The maximum top-to-bottom GDP range was 2.0 to 3.5 percent. The maximum top-to-bottom GDP range was 2.1 to 3.3 percent. That’s tight.

The half-point drop today was on trade data.

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