Real means after inflation. Current dollar personal income of 0.3 minus the 0.3 price increase = 0.0 percent real income gains.

Personal Income Gains

The BEA has these comment on the nominal rise in Personal Income.

The increase in personal income in June primarily reflected increases in government social benefits to persons and in compensation.

• The increase in government social benefits to persons was led by Social Security payments, based on data from the Social Security Administration and the Monthly Treasury Statement.
• The increase in compensation reflected increases of $10.9 billion in government wages and salaries, $10.8 billion in supplements (mainly employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds), and $6.3 billion in private wages and salaries, based on data from the Bureau
  of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Wages and salaries in goods producing industries increased $4.5 billion. Wages and salaries in services-producing industries increased $1.9 billion.

Real Personal Income With and Without Government Transfers

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The NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, watches real personal income excluding government transfer payments.

In June, real PI excluding transfers fell 0.18 percent. In July, real PI excluding transfers fell 0.16 percent.

Real Personal Current Transfer Receipts

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I believe we know where this problem is headed.

The Committee for a Responsible Budget reports OBBBA Would Accelerate Social Security & Medicare Insolvency

The Social Security and Medicare Trustees estimated in their 2025 annual reports on the programs that the retirement and hospital trust funds will become insolvent in 2033 – only eight years from today. We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) would accelerate Social Security and Medicare insolvency by a year, to 2032.

Musk says “Social Security is the Biggest Ponzi Scheme of all Time.”

On March 21, I discussed Musk says “Social Security is the Biggest Ponzi Scheme of all Time.” Agree?

In contrast, PolitiFact says SS is not a Ponzi scheme. Who is correct?

The Peak 65 Moment and Why Social Security Is Going Bust

On July 7, I commented The Peak 65 Moment and Why Social Security Is Going Bust

About 11,000 people turn 65 every day. This will last for 3 years.

There are nearly 40 million more people aged 65 and older than in 2010.

However, there are only 9 million more people paying into Social Security.

By 2035, the Social Security Administration estimates there will be 77 million people age 65 and older.

The CFRB thinks Social Security will be insolvent in 2032. I think that is optimistic.

Factor in recession and a decrease in FICA payments.

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