Real Disposable Income Rises But Real Spending On Goods And Services Declines

Real Disposable Income (DPI), Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Real PILT  

Real Disposable Income (DPI), Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Real PILT  

Personal Income and Outlays, February 2023

Please consider the BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for February 2023.

  • Personal income increased $72.9 billion (0.3 percent)
  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.9 billion (0.2 percent)
  • The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. 
  • Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.3 percent 
  • Real Disposable Personal Income (DPI) increased 0.2 percent in February 
  • Real PCE decreased 0.1 percent; goods and services each decreased 0.1 percent 
  • Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments was flat

Real means inflation adjusted by the PCE price index not the CPI.

The NBER factors Real PCE and Real PILT into its recession decision process. 

Real PCE Three Ways 

Real PCE Three Ways 2023-02

Real PCE Notes

  • Real PCE fell 0.1 percent
  • Real PCE Goods fell 0.1 percent
  • Real PCE Services fell 0.1 percent

Real spending on services had its first decline in 13 months. The Fed will be pleased with that item.

January PCE had a strong jump due to tax decrease. It did not carry over into February. For discussion of the January surge please see Explaining a Huge Inflationary Jump in Disposable Personal Income

Personal Income Percent Change From Previous Month

Personal Income Six Ways 2023-02

Personal Income Six Ways

  • DPI is personal income after taxes. 
  • Real DPI means inflation adjusted.
  • PCTR stands for Personal Current Transfer Receipts

Transfer payments are income for which no current service has been performed.

PCTR includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Food Stamps. 

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