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Personal Income and Outlays, April 2023

Please consider the BEA's Personal Income and Outlays, April 2023

• Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in April
• Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $79.4 billion (0.4 percent) 
• Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $151.7 billion (0.8 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent.

Real Income and Spending

• Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in April
• Real PCE increased 0.5 percent; goods increased 0.8 percent and services increased 0.3 percent 

Real means inflation adjusted by the PCE price index. Thus, inflation-adjusted income was flat but spending rose by 0.5 percent. 

Real Disposable Personal Income and Real PCE

Real Income and Spending Percent Change From Last Month

Consumers went on a shopping spree in April relative to income. In isolation, a shopping spree would add to GDP forecasts. 

But the GDPNow forecast fell a full percentage point today, from 2.9 percent to 1.9 percent because the import-export report was abysmal.

For discussion, please see Trade Deficit in Goods Jumps 17 Percent as Imports Surge and Exports Plunge

Regarding inflation, the Fed will not at all be pleased with the PCE price index jumping 0.4 percent for the month, with the core index also up 0.4 percent.

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