The TFM 10% System is a simple market timing system for the S&P 500. The "designer's intent" was to help you avoid the occasional "diaper change moment*" My thinking is that if the Ps are going to lose half or more of their value (as they occasionally do!), they're going to lose 10% first. 

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Therefore, we need to think seriously about exiting when it drops 10% or more from their 50-week closing high. 

I added in a whipsaw filter for buys and sells to help reduce the amount of ins and outs (i.e., reduce false signals).

For buys, the weekly S&P 500 must have 2-bars of upside 50-Landry Light (lows > the 50-week) and be within 10% of the 50-week closing high. An example of this is shown below (coming out of the pandemic bear market). Notice that there are 2-bars of lows > 50-week moving average (Landry Light) and the close (3) is within 10% of the 50-week closing high (the green line on the chart). 

Since they "slide faster than they glide," the rules for sells are less stringent: Exit the market when the S&P has to closes 10% or more below the 50-week closing high and is also below its the 50-week moving average. The pandemic sell signal is shown below. 

As of Friday, February 17, the market had 2-bars of weekly upside Landry Light but closed more than 10% away from its 50-week closing high. So, it was close, but not cigar to a buy. 

Since the market continued to slide since then, the soonest buy signal that we could see would be at least 2-weeks. This  would take quite the miracle though. We'd have to have the mother-of-all gaps on Monday (02/07/23), followed by another week of serious strength. In reality, it'll probably be another 4-6 weeks before we see the next buy signal. Stay tuned to the Week In Charts for updates. 

May the trend be with you!

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