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Please consider the E-Commerce Retail Sales Report for the second quarter of 2025.

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $304.2 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (±0.9%) from the first quarter of 2025.

Total retail sales for the second quarter of 2025 were estimated at $1,865.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.4%) from the first quarter of 2025.

The second quarter 2025 e-commerce estimate increased 5.3 percent (±1.2%) from the second quarter of 2024 while total retail sales increased 3.9 percent (±0.4%) in the same period. Ecommerce sales in the second quarter of 2025 accounted for 16.3 percent of total sales.

The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes.”

It’s “real” inflation-adjusted sales that matter to GDP. I used the CPI Index 1982-1984 = 100 to calculate real sales.

It’s standard economic procedure to calculate real sales this way.

E-Commerce Retail Sales Quarterly Percent Change From Prior Quarter

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I excluded the Covid pandemic years in my averages because the percentage changes were wild.

Making analysis difficult is the constant upward pressure on e-commerce sales as the percent keeps going up over time.

E-Commerce Retail Sales Quarterly Percent of Retail Sales

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Those percentages are from the commerce department. I prefer to look at the percentage of e-commerce sales that can reasonably be purchased online.

Online sales exclude gasoline and eating out. I also exclude groceries, and cars. Although one can buy groceries and cars online few do so although the percentages are rising.

Here’s my monthly estimate of the percent of purchases made online using the above guidelines.

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Because of the scale difference, the lead chart makes real sales look flatter than they are. Here’s real sales in isolation.

E-Commerce Retail Real Sales

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It’s arguably a bit early to declare a “stall” but that is how it looks at the moment.

Finally, the commerce department revised Q1 2025 sales lower, down just over 1 percent. The first half of 2025 is flat.

I expect more negative revisions will come.

Other Economic Data

Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent

On July 23, I reported Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent, Median Price New Record High

Hooray, higher prices? That’s the message from the NAR.

That alleged Median Price Record did not happen. The NAR does a terrible job at seasonal adjustments (if it tries at all).

Click on above link for discussion. And expect rapid decline now in NAR median prices.

August 14, 2025: Producer Prices for July Unexpectedly Rise the Most Since March 2022

Producer prices were high across the board in July.

August 19, 2025: Housing Permits Sink to the Lowest Level Since June 2020

Homebuilders can’t start what isn’t permitted.

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