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To date, 169 of the 192 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q3 2025, representing 89% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 67% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 29% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q3 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 7.5%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 192 companies in this index is 5.3% for Q3 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 68% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and the remaining 31% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

As predicted by StarMine, Signet delivered a strong third-quarter performance exceeding earnings estimates with a 162.5% year-over-year earnings growth. Revenue rose 3.1% to $1.39 billion, surpassing expectations on both earnings and same-store sales (SSS). The jewelry retailer reported a 3.0% increase in SSS, driven by strong performance from its Kay, Zales, and Jared brands and its balanced diamond assortment strategy.

CEO J.K. Symancyk noted that “we are updating our Fiscal 2026 guidance to reflect third quarter outperformance, further tariff mitigation efforts, and a measured outlook for the fourth quarter given external disruptions since late October and potential continued softness in consumer confidence.” (Source: Signet Q3 Earnings Release, Dec 2, 2025).

Despite the robust Q3 beat and an upward revision to full-year guidance, management’s cautious stance on the holiday quarter contributed to a stock price decline on the day of the announcement.

Here are the latest Q3 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q3 2025

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

American Eagle is scheduled to report today, with revenue expected to rise 2.7% to $1.32 billion, supported by marketing campaigns featuring celebrities that have helped drive sales. Same-store sales (SSS) are projected to increase 2.4%.

However, earnings are forecast at $0.44 per share, representing an 8.7% decline year-over-year. Like many retailers, American Eagle continues to face headwinds from tariff-related costs, promotional activity, and margin pressure from high-profile marketing initiatives, which may weigh on gross margins this quarter.

Looking Ahead: Analysts surveyed by LSEG remain optimistic on Five Below’s Q3 performance, with results expected later this week. For Five Below, the current consensus for Q3 2025 EPS stands at $0.24. However, a five-star rated analyst with a strong track record has issued a Bold Estimate of $0.33, well above consensus. Additionally, the StarMine Predicted Surprise exceeds 2%, signaling a high probability that Five Below will deliver an earnings beat and a positive surprise

The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3: Five Below StarMine SmartEstimate and Predicted Surprise %: Q3 2025

Source: LSEG Workspace.

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