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To date, 147 of the 192 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q3 2025, representing 77% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 65% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 31% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q3 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 6.9%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 192 companies in this index is 5.0% for Q3 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far,68% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 32% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

This week’s retail earnings underscore a clear theme: affordability. Q3 results across major retailers highlight consumers’ growing preference for value-driven shopping.

Target echoed this sentiment, noting that “Guests are choiceful, stretching budgets and prioritizing value” (Target Q3 2025 Earnings Call). The discounter beat earnings expectations but missed on revenue and lowered its full-year guidance. As inflation pressures persist, consumers continue to trade down and seek better deals elsewhere.

To strengthen its position, Target is focusing on three interconnected priorities: improving design-led merchandising by leading with distinctive, high-quality products that reinforce its brand identity; enhancing the overall shopping experience to ensure it matches the quality of its offerings; and leveraging advanced technology, including AI solutions like ChatGPT, to drive operational efficiency and elevate guest engagement.

Comparable sales declined 2.7%, falling short of the estimated -2.1%, primarily due to weakness in discretionary categories such as home and apparel. This was partially offset by strength in food and beverage and the Fun 101 category. Digital comparable sales grew 2.4%, fueled by over 35% growth in same-day services, including delivery powered by Target Circle 360 and continued momentum in Drive Up. Seasonal events, such as Back-to-School, and Halloween delivered the strongest results, underscoring their importance to Target’s business for the upcoming holiday season. Consumers are prioritizing spending on food, essentials, and beauty, while seeking trend-right deals in discretionary categories. “They want quality and price to coexist”, reinforcing the need for value-driven assortments across all segments. (Source; Target Q3 2025 Earnings Call).

In contrast to broader retail softness, off-price retailer TJX continues to benefit from its treasure-hunt shopping experience, delivering strong value to consumers, including high-end shoppers seeking designer brands at lower prices. TJX beat both Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, with comparable sales up 5.0%, surpassing the expected 3.0%. The company emphasized its positioning as a gifting destination for value-conscious shoppers this holiday season (Source: TJX Q3 Earnings).

Similarly, Williams-Sonoma exceeded Q3 earnings, revenue, and same-store sales expectations, posting 4.0% comp growth versus the 3.6% estimate. The retailer also raised its full-year operating margin guidance, effectively offsetting the impact of imported furniture tariffs. Its namesake brand delivered the strongest performance, with a 7.3% comp growth, well above the 5.3% forecast.

Despite these bright spots, the furniture industry remains pressured by a sluggish housing market, as affordability concerns and economic uncertainty deter homebuyers. Even as mortgage rates ease, demand has yet to rebound meaningfully. Reflecting these challenges, Home Depot lowered its full-year earnings guidance, citing “ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing” as key factors disproportionately impacting home improvement demand.

Here are the latest Q3 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q3 2025

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

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