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To date, 166 of the 197 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2025, representing 84% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 72% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 6.2%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 197 companies in this index is 4.6% for Q2 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 71% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 29% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Williams-Sonoma WSM and Kohl’s KSS both reported Q2 earnings today, offering contrasting views of consumer behavior and operational resilience in a challenging retail environment. Williams-Sonoma delivered strong results, with a 3.7% increase in comparable brand revenue and nearly 15% EPS growth to $2.00. The company credited its performance to positive comps across furniture and non-furniture categories, strong execution in retail and e-commerce, and strategic inventory pull-forwards to mitigate tariff impacts. Despite facing elevated tariffs (up to 50% on certain imports), Williams-Sonoma raised its full-year revenue outlook and reiterated its operating margin guidance, citing its omni-channel strength and supply chain efficiencies.

Meanwhile, Kohl’s beat earnings expectations with adjusted EPS of $0.56, significantly above its estimate. It also beat its Q2 revenue estimate, but comparable sales declined 4.2%. The retailer saw improved performance in proprietary brands and its Sephora partnership, but noted that lower- to middle-income consumers remain under pressure, increasingly trading down to lower price-point products. The department store emphasized its focus on delivering greater value through coupon-eligible offerings and cost discipline, while acknowledging that macroeconomic headwinds will likely persist through the remainder of the year.

Abercrombie & Fitch ANF exceeded Q2 earnings and revenue expectations, with strong performance in same-store sales (SSS) driven by its Hollister division. Hollister posted a robust 19% comp growth, helping offset an 11% decline at the namesake Abercrombie brand. The company also reported a $5 million adverse impact from tariffs in Q2, primarily reflected in cost of sales. Despite these headwinds, Abercrombie raised its full-year guidance and addressed the tariff issue directly during its earnings call:

“On the bottom line, we’ve adjusted our operating margin and earnings per share outlooks to reflect the second-quarter performance and revised estimated impact from tariffs, net of planned mitigation. On tariffs, we intend to bring our proven playbook—built on years of experience—to mitigate as much of the increased cost as possible over time as rates become more certain.” (Source: Abercrombie & Fitch Q2 Earnings Call)

Here are the latest Q2 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q2 2025

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

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