Q2 2025 U.S. Retail Scorecard - Update

By Jharonne Martis of Lipper Alpha Insight

Friday, August 22, 2025 5:14 PM EST

Image Source: Unsplash

To date, 159 of the 197 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2025, representing 81% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 72% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 24% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 6.0%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 197 companies in this index is 4.6% for Q2 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 71% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 29% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Walmart WMT exceeded Q2 revenue expectations and outperformed on same store sales (SSS), delivering a positive surprise despite a slight earnings miss. As the largest U.S. retailer, Walmart provides a valuable lens into consumer behavior. On its Q2 earnings call, the company noted that the impact of tariffs has been gradual so far, leading to only modest shifts in customer behavior.

However, as Walmart replenishes inventory at post-tariff price levels, it has experienced weekly cost increases, an upward trend expected to persist through the third and fourth quarters. The company also observed more noticeable spending adjustments among middle- and lower-income households compared to higher-income ones (Source: Walmart Q2 Earnings Call, August 21, 2025).

So far in 2025, consumer prices have been slow to rise, partly because retailers, including Walmart, took proactive steps to offset tariff impacts. These included preordering inventory and absorbing some costs to shield consumers in the short term. Walmart’s scale, supplier relationships, and diversified revenue streams, such as its growing advertising business and Walmart+ membership program, provide flexibility in managing tariff-related pressures. The company reported double-digit growth in Walmart+ membership income.

Approximately two-thirds of Walmart’s products are sourced domestically. The retailer continues to gain market share from upscale shoppers trading down, consumers who can afford higher prices but are increasingly prioritizing value.

Walmart also shared that its back-to-school season performed well, serving as a positive indicator for the upcoming holiday period. The company reported strong unit and dollar sales, along with healthy inventory sell-through at both Walmart and Sam’s Club.

Other retailers echoed similar optimism. Target TGT noted encouraging early results from both back-to-school and back-to-college sales. TJX expressed confidence in its product category initiatives for the season, while Ross ROST highlighted improved trends at the end of the quarter, particularly in early back-to-school sales, suggesting momentum heading into Q3.

Both off-price retailers, TJX and Ross Stores, beat their same-store sales (SSS) estimates, each posting a robust 4% increase. However, TJX delivered stronger earnings and revenue growth year-over-year compared to Ross Stores. Ross noted that year-over-year comparisons will become more challenging in the second half of the year, citing an external environment that remains uncertain and volatile. As a result, the company is maintaining a cautious approach to its sales forecasts (Source: ROST Q2 Earnings Report).

Meanwhile, BJ’s Wholesale beat Q2 earnings expectations but fell short on revenue. SSS declined by 0.3%, missing forecasts due to lower retail fuel prices. Despite this, the company reported a record-high membership count of 8 million, with membership fee income rising 9.0% year-over-year to $123.3 million. BJ’s continues to gain market share “even in a dynamic environment” and remains optimistic about its performance for the rest of the year (Source: BJ’s Wholesale Q2 Earnings Report).

As anticipated by StarMine, The Buckle delivered a positive Q2 earnings surprise, surpassing expectations. The retailer also exceeded its revenue estimate, with sales rising 8.3% year-over-year. Additionally, it outperformed its 4.0% comparable store sales (SSS) forecast, posting a strong 7.3% increase. The teen-focused retailer continues to expand its digital footprint, with online sales climbing 17.7% to $43.6 million.

Here are the Q2 2025 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q2 2025

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