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To date, 156 of the 197 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2025, representing 80% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 65% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 3% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 8.0%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 197 companies in this index is 2.9% for Q1 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 50% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 50% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Deckers exceeded expectations in its first-quarter earnings, as predicted by StarMine. The retailer reported earnings per share of $1.00, far surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.60. This positive surprise was driven by strong sales from its Hoka and UGG brands, contributing to a 6.5% year-over-year revenue increase.

Urban Outfitters also beat Q1 expectations across earnings, revenue, and same-store sales. The company reported a robust 10.7% increase in overall sales and 4.8% growth in same-store sales. The Anthropologie division led the way with a 6.9% comp gain. Management noted proactive efforts to optimize the supply chain, including a shift from air to sea shipping to better manage costs.

Despite broader softness in the luxury sector, Ralph Lauren delivered a strong quarter, posting an 8.3% increase in sales and outperforming Q1 estimates. The company benefited from strategic price increases and lower cotton costs. However, it issued cautious fiscal-year guidance, anticipating low-single-digit growth amid economic uncertainty in North America.

Williams-Sonoma also beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Same-store sales grew 3.4%, handily topping the 0.1% consensus estimate. The furniture retailer acknowledged ongoing headwinds from geopolitical risks and tariffs but plans to offset these challenges through operational efficiencies, cost controls, and strategic pricing initiatives.

Analysts polled by LSEG remain bullish on upcoming Q1 results for Five Below and Dave & Buster’s. The consensus EPS estimate for Dave & Buster’s Q1 2025 is $1.02. Notably, a top-rated analyst with a five-star track record has issued a Bold Estimate of $1.21, significantly above the consensus, indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat and positive surprise.

The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: Dave & Buster’s StarMine SmartEstimate and Predicted Surprise %: Q1 2025

Source: LSEG Workspace

Here are the Q1 2025 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting next week:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2025

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

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