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To date, 163 of the 197 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2025, representing 83% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 64% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 7.9%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 197 companies in this index is 2.9% for Q1 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 52% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 48% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Dick’s Sporting Goods exceeded expectations in its first-quarter earnings, reporting same-store sales (SSS) growth of 4.5%, well above the consensus estimate of 2.6%. The retailer also announced its acquisition of Foot Locker, a strategic move aimed at expanding its international market share. Dick’s continues to refine its omnichannel strategy, offering consumers both convenience and value. Additionally, the company has integrated athletic experiences into its stores, tapping into the growing consumer preference for experiences. Analysts polled by LSEG remain optimistic that these efforts will drive store traffic, even amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Abercrombie & Fitch reported a 4% increase in same-store sales, marking its first quarter below double-digit comps after seven consecutive strong quarters. The performance was driven by a 23% SSS increase at its Hollister brand, offset by a 10% decline at its Abercrombie division. The teen-focused retailer also lowered its guidance, citing potential pressure from tariffs, which could disproportionately impact its younger customer base. In its Q1 2025 earnings call, Abercrombie noted efforts to mitigate the impact by relocating suppliers out of China. “On the margin front, you’re exactly right. We’re rolling through that $50 million of tariff impact net of the mitigation efforts to date and that expected margin pressure from Q2 to walk us from that 14% to 15% from March to that 12.5% to 13.5% guide today.” (Source: Abercrombie & Fitch, Q1 2025 Earnings Call)

Macy’s also lowered its full-year guidance, citing concerns over tariffs and declining margins. The retailer reported a -2% SSS result, though its premium divisions Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury—delivered positive comps. The Macy’s brand remains in the midst of its three-year “Bold New Chapter” transformation strategy. During the quarter, the 125 reimagined Macy’s locations posted a comp decline of just 0.8%, compared to a -2.1% decline across the full Macy’s banner. The company expressed confidence in its trajectory for improved performance throughout the year.

Looking ahead, analysts polled by LSEG are already bullish on Gap, Inc.’s Q1 2025 of $0.45. Notably, a top-rated analyst with a five-star track record has issued a Bold Estimate of $0.53, above the consensus, indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat and positive surprise.

The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: Gap’s StarMine SmartEstimate and Predicted Surprise %: Q1 2025

Source: LSEG Workspace

Here are the Q1 2025 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting next week:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2025

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

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