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I created some charts from a new post-debate poll that shows Biden is weakening fast. I also tie in the latest economic data.

 

 

All data for these polls courtesy of USAToday/Suffolk Poll 2024-07-02. Here are the Poll Questions and Marginals.

Candidates

Democrat: Joe Biden
Republican: Donald Trump
Green Party: Jill Stein
Independent: Robert Kennedy
Independent: Cornel West
Libertarian: Chase Oliver

First and Second Choice

• First Choice: Trump Leads Biden by 3.9 percentage points (PP) on first choice, 41.4 to 37.5
• Second Choice: Trump Leads Biden by 8.4 PP on second choice, 25.2 to 16.6
• Combined: Trump Leads Biden by 12.3 PP on second choice, 25.2 to 16.6

This seems to suggest the that the combination of undecided voters and alternate voters prefer Trump over Biden.

 

Candidate Preference by Political Party

 

 

How Many Independent Voters Are There?

 

30.1 percent seems like a huge number. But only 18 percent are undecided.

Here’s the math: 0.31 * 0.18 = 5.6 percent of voters. And the second choice seems more likely to be for Trump than Biden. Some will vote for Kennedy and some won’t vote at all.

 

Is Your Mind Made Up by Political Party

 

Republicans are very unlikely to change their minds. This is a potential edge for Biden, depending on how independents break.

Republicans are already in the fold. Democrats for Kennedy may switch. And independents may break toward Biden. This is Biden’s best shot (Harris if she replaces Biden).

But the mind changers could also break to toward Trump leading to a rout.

 

Is Your Mind Made Up by Political Party

 

 

This chart seems to favor Biden, but the math is not overwhelming. Blacks are about 14 percent of the population. Even if 100% of them switched to Biden that’s only 0.22 * 0.14 maximum. In practice, the potential is far less because most of them are already in the Biden camp. And some of them may switch from Biden to Kennedy or sit the election out.

 

Candidate Preference by Race

 

This chart likely shocks nearly everyone, especially the Democratic party. But it makes perfect sense to me.

In general, these are hard-working US citizens. I saw this firsthand in trade groups that helped build our new house. So, I am not the least surprised by the chart.

Moreover, Hispanics are more concerned about the economy than whites, even republicans! I will show that in a subsequent post on issues.

Anecdotes are not data. Regardless, and contrary to widespread allegation, the illegals are not voting. There will be a Republican election judge going over every name.

Nothing above implies I am for open borders. I am explicitly not in favor of what’s happening.

 

Is Your Mind Made Up by Age Group

 

Given that age group 18-34 is for Trump, perhaps there is some sort of advantage here for Biden if this group switches. But it’s not quite that simple. To see why let’s turn back to candidate preferences.

 

Candidate Preference by Age Group

 

 

An amazing 41 percent of those 18-34 are for Trump with only 30 percent for Biden.

That’s an unprecedented 11 percentage point gap for Republicans. In 2020 this age group voted overwhelmingly for Biden.

It poses an opportunity but one that could backfire for Democrats if they try to get more young voters to vote.

This age group has the smallest turnout historically. Do Democrats try to get the youth vote more active? If so, who is the beneficiary?

I suspect it is Republicans who should go after these voters. I can explain why in an economic chart.

 

Unemployment Rate by Age Group

 

 

• Overall: 4.1 Percent
• 16-19: 12.1 Percent
• 20-24: 7.5 Percent
• 25-34: 4.4 Percent
• 35-44: 3.3 Percent
• 45-54: 2.7 Percent
• 55+ 2.8 Percent

Unemployment is up sharply in the 18-34 age group. More on that in a moment. First let’s discuss race.

 

Unemployment Rate by Race

 

Data from the BLS, chart by Mish

 

Unemployment among blacks is up from 4.8 percent to 6.3 percent. This shows up in the above poll. 63 percent support Biden but that down from normal ranges well above 80 percent.

 

What’s Going On?

I have been talking about this since February. Let’s go over some more recent posts instead.

On April 20, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

Q: Who is it that rent?
A: Young adults and blacks.

 

Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II

 

Data from the BLS except for the Case-Shiller housing index , chart by Mish

 

On June 19, I commented Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II

Economists say wages are now rising faster than the CPI. That’s not true for those who rent or wish to buy a house.

Those renting have seen the price of rent go up at least 0.4 percent every month for 33 consecutive months.

Meanwhile, the cost of a home has skyrocketed.

Renters (mainly young adults and blacks), have been left behind and it shows up in the polls.

Also see The Unemployment Rate Bottomed a Year Ago, Who’s Impacted the Most?

The leftwing media and economists don’t understand the polls. But there’s the explanation in pictures.

 

Correction

In the Mind Made Up by Age Group chart, I inadvertently entered 88 instead of 82 for age group 50-64.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

 

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