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WTI Crude Oil

The crude oil market fell a bit during the course of the week, as it continued to focus on the tensions in the Middle East. With that being the case, the market is likely going to continue to see the $90 level above as a major resistance barrier. If oil can break above the $90 level, then it could go looking the $95 level. Underneath, the 50-week EMA could offer support.

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Gold

I feel like I’ve been chasing gold back and forth all week, as the market continued looking at the $2000 level as a major resistance barrier. If the yellow metal can break above there, then it’s possible that the market could go toward the $2050 level. Having said that, gold has been moving almost purely based on the bond market and the Middle East tensions.

The bond market has broken over the 5% barrier in the 10-year yield yet again, which works against gold, but the situation in the Middle East continues to push gold higher. One should expect to see massive amounts of volatility, and much like the oil market, the precious metal space will likely react to recent headlines.

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EUR/USD

The euro ended up forming a bit of an inverted hammer for the week as it continued to bounce around in a bearish flag. This is a market that I believe will continue to move lower, but the euro would need to break down below the 1.05 level in order to pick up downward momentum. With all of the “risk off behavior” out there potentially coming, I think such a move could likely occur. 

Rallies appear set to be sold into, at least according to the data that I can see.

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GBP/USD

The British pound initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but it gave back gains near the crucial 1.2350 level yet again. At this point, it looks like the British pound is likely to continue seeing downward pressure, and we could see it drop down to the 1.1850 level.

Looking forward, I think that the 1.2350 level is a major resistance barrier, and if the pound can break down below the 1.20 level, this would open up a move down to the 1.1850 level. At this point, the US dollar makes the most sense to own out of all of the major currencies.

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USD/JPY

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the course of the week against the Japanese yen, but it ran into a lot of noise near the JPY150 level. It turned around and formed a bit of a shooting star, suggesting that perhaps it is not ready to break out.

I think we will continue to see it consolidate overall, and as long as it can stay above the 147.75 region, I think it will just continue to grind sideways and work off some of the excess froth in the market.

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USD/CAD

The US dollar also rallied significantly against the Canadian dollar, bursting through the 1.38 level that I had mentioned last week. Now that it is above there, I believe it will go on to challenge the 1.40 level.

The 1.40 level being broken to the upside would open up the possibility of a much bigger move. With this, I remain bullish, but if we were to see it turn around and break below the 1.36 level, then I would have to look at this as a failed breakout.

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Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 rallied initially during the course of the trading week, but it seemingly found the area above the 14,500 level a bit too much to overcome. Because of this, I think the market is now going to threaten the 50-week EMA, and then perhaps the 13,750 level, an area that previously was resistance.

All things being equal, this is a market that is continuing to accelerate to the downside, so we could see quite a bit of negative pressure as we navigate the Q3 earnings season, not to mention the geopolitical strife that is going on at the moment.

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USD/MXN

The US dollar moved back and forth against the Mexican peso during the course of the week, as it tested the 18.50 MXN level. If we were to see a break above that area, the US dollar would be ready to fly.

At that point, I would anticipate the greenback to go looking to the 200-day EMA, closer to the 19.20 MXN region. On the other hand, if we were to see it turn around and break down below the low from two weeks ago at the 17.80 MXN level, then I believe the market would drop.

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