Pairs In Focus - Sunday, Oct. 6
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AUD/USD
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The Australian dollar pulled back during the course of the trading week, as it crashed through the 0.68 level. Therefore, I think that this market will likely continue to experience negativity at this point.
All things being equal, the AUD/USD currency pair is still in the same consolidation area we have previously seen it in, as the market has clearly been stuck in the same range for the last couple of years. Keep in mind that this is a pair that is often tied to risk appetite. The fact that the jobs number in America came out hotter than anticipated has favored the greenback.
NZD/USD
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The New Zealand dollar collapsed during the course of the week, as it broke below the 0.62 level, and it now looks ready to go much lower. At this point, it’s probably worth noting that the 0.6350 level above is significant resistance, just as the 0.5850 level underneath is a significant support level.
The price appears to be approaching the middle of the overall range, but I think the week has shown just how soft the New Zealand dollar could be. Traders should pay attention to the US dollar, as the movement in the NZD/USD currency pair is likely reflective of the New Zealand dollar's relationship with other currencies.
USD/MXN
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The US dollar initially tried to rally a bit against the Mexican peso, but it then gave back gains during the course of the week. At this point, the 19 MXN level may offer support. I think that price action will remain stuck in a range at this juncture, between the 19 MXN level and the 20 MXN level above.
All things being equal, I think that the market will likely continue to see sideways movement in the coming days. Keep in mind that a stronger US dollar can often equal a stronger Mexican peso.
GBP/USD
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The British pound initially tried to rally during the course of the week, only for it to turn around and collapse. The GBP/USD currency pair could start looking toward the 1.30 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
The size of the candlestick appears to be rather negative, as it suggests that perhaps a deeper correction could be coming. Either way, traders should pay close attention to the 1.30 level.
USD/CHF
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The US dollar exploded to the upside against the Swiss franc, as the 0.84 level continued to serve as a hard floor in the market. After the size of this candlestick, I suspect that the space will see some “buy on the dips” price action.
The jobs number seems to have solidified the idea that the US economy should continue to outperform. Furthermore, there will be questions asked as to whether or not the Federal Reserve can aggressively cut rates any further.
WTI Crude Oil
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Crude oil rallied rather significantly during the course of the trading week, as it bounced significantly from the $65 mark, which has been a major support level over the last couple of weeks.
The candlestick for the week appears to be very strong, but it has been slamming into the crucial 200-week EMA. If crude oil can break above there, then the market could go looking to the $85 level. The size of the candlestick is a very bullish indicator. Because of this, I would be a buyer of dips going forward.
Nasdaq 100
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The Nasdaq 100 initially pulled back a bit during the course of the week, only for it to turn around and show signs of life. If the index manages to threaten the 20,000 mark, then it could go looking toward the 21,000 level.
The index may see some short-term pullbacks that could offer a bit of value. The Nasdaq 100 has recently experienced some noisy price action, but I believe the index should not be sold anytime soon.
GBP/CHF
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The British pound moved back and forth against the Swiss franc throughout the week, as risk appetite similarly fluctuated all over the place. Because of this, I think traders should continue to monitor overall risk appetite, and either buy or sell as a result.
Remember, the Swiss franc is considered to be a major safety currency. With this, I would expect to see more noise in this space. It's worth noting that this market is right in the middle of the overall consolidation that has been in place since 2022.
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