Pairs In Focus - Sunday, Oct. 5
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EUR/USD
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The euro rallied a bit during the course of the trading week, but it hasn't been able to escape its recent range. The market has been consolidating for a while, and it’s worth noting that every time the euro has tried to rally against the US dollar, it has failed.
The 1.18 level must be overcome in order for the euro to continue going higher. If this could be achieved, the euro could then reach toward the 1.19 level, where it had been repudiated after the FOMC press conference. On the downside, a major uptrend line appears to be coming into the picture based on the daily timeframe. A break down below that point could see the market test the 1.16 level.
Natural Gas
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Natural gas climbed over the course of the last week, as it broke above the 200-week EMA. The market has struggled with the $3.50 level, as it has rolled over into the November contract. We are starting to move into the colder months, and therefore I think it makes a certain amount of sense that we will continue to see buyers jump into this market if given enough time. With that being said, I believe that short-term pullbacks will likely continue to offer buying opportunities.
Silver
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Silver initially fell during the trading week, before it then turned around to rally quite nicely. It seems like silver will continue to grapple with the $48 level, which is an area that has been very difficult to break above over the last several days.
If the market can break above the $40 level, then the grey metal could potentially reach toward the $50 level, which is an area that has historically served as a barrier. Short-term pullbacks may be likely to occur, and I anticipate that there should be significant support to be found at the $46 level, and then again at the $45 level.
Gold
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The gold market experienced a very strong week, as the yellow metal broke above the $3900 level. This is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of bullish pressure, and I believe that traders will be willing to get involved in the space if a pullback occurs.
Remember, gold had previously been in a massive ascending triangle, which formulated a move to the $3800 level. It’s that very same $3800 level that I believe may end up offering a bit of support in the short-term on dips. Ultimately, it seems likely gold will try to reach the $4000 mark, based on what I see on the chart.
USD/CAD
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The US dollar witnessed some noise against the Canadian dollar during the bulk of the week, and it now appears to be threatening the 1.40 level. Breaking above that level would open up the potential for a much bigger move, perhaps even to the 1.4250 level.
Short-term pullbacks should continue to attract attention, as the market will likely continue to focus on interest rate differential between the United States and Canada, and, of course, the weakening Canadian economy.
GBP/USD
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The British pound initially rallied during the week, but it gave back those gains as the market continued to experience volatility. The 1.34 level has continued to be a major support level, and a break down below that point could see a move to the 1.3350 level. Anything below that mark could see the pound plummet to the 1.32 level underneath.
If the pound could break above the recent high, then it could potentially challenge the 1.36 level. The pound appears to be on a precipice, and it is just a matter of seeing which direction it will move in.
Bitcoin
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Bitcoin rallied rather significantly during the course of the trading week to break above the $120,000 threshold. At this point in time, the cryptocurrency appears ready to close at the very top of its range, which would be bullish.
Ultimately, the market seems poised to move higher, perhaps even above the recent high of $124,000 or so, which would open up the possibility of a further move to the upside. Pullbacks in the space should continue to offer buying opportunities for those seeking value.
Nasdaq 100
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The Nasdaq 100 continued to see a lot of buying pressure, and on Friday, it witnessed pressure at the 25,000 level. The US government shut down, so we did not get the Non-Foreign Payroll announcement, and that added volatility to the market.
Over the last several months, we can see that the index has traded in a very well-defined channel, and this will likely continue to be the case going forward. Pullbacks at this point in time should end up serving as buying opportunities in this very bullish market. I expect to see some noise around the 25,000 level, but once that mark is in the rear-view mirror, the Nasdaq 100 should be free to go higher.
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