Pairs In Focus - Sunday, Feb. 16
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CAD/JPY
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The Canadian dollar rallied rather significantly during the week against the Japanese yen. The pair has been range-bound for a while, with the JPY160 level underneath being a bit of a floor. At the same time, however, I can see a lot of resistance near the JPY110 level.
Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that although the Canadian dollar strengthened during the week, it’s not exactly a strong currency. The Japanese yen has been bolstered by the idea that the Bank of Japan might be doing a bit of inflation-fighting. I expect to see more choppy, sideways action.
USD/MXN
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The US dollar fell during the trading week against the Mexican peso, but the pair looks similarly range-bound at the moment. The MXN20 level below could offer significant support, while the MXN21 level above could offer significant resistance. The tariffs being put on pause helped the Mexican peso. However, there is still no permanent deal in place at this point in time, so it seems that the jury is still out when it comes to this currency pair.
USD/CAD
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The US dollar plunged against the Canadian dollar during the trading week, as it broke down below the 1.42 level. This, of course, was a very negative week, as traders started to price out the idea of a trade war with the United States.
I think this may be a mistake, however, because Justin Trudeau has shown no real interest in trying to sort something out. If Trump enacts tariffs against Canada, this market could turn around and skyrocket to the upside. I would be very careful here.
Gold
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Gold originally broke above the $2900 level, before it then gave back quite a bit of those gains late in the week. Gold markets were particularly noisy in the Asian session, so I’m not real sure what’s going on there, but this is a pattern I have been watching closely. At this point, I think a pullback may be likely, but that should only end up offering a buying opportunity if given enough time.
Bitcoin
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Bitcoin initially pulled back just a bit during the trading week, only for it to then turn around and show signs of life. Bitcoin now seems to be hovering in the consolidation zone it previously touched. The $90,000 level below will likely continue to be a major floor, while the $110,000 level above may offer resistance. I think this space will only continue to experience some consolidation.
USD/CHF
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The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Swiss franc, before it plunged toward the 0.90 level. This is a market that I think is still very much in consolidation, but this next week or so could have a major influence as to where it goes over the longer-term.
If it can turn around and bounce, such a move could see it reach toward the 0.92 level. On the other hand, a breakdown below the 0.89 level could cause the market to drop rather significantly, perhaps to the 0.88 level.
Nasdaq 100
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The Nasdaq 100 was very bullish during the week, as the index broke above the crucial 22,000 level again. It could continue going higher, especially with the way it closed toward the top of the overall range for the week.
The question now is whether or not there will be some kind of tariff war. Or, perhaps, if tensions were to cool, that could help the Nasdaq 100 quite significantly. This market may provide a “buy on the dips” opportunity.
Silver
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Silver initially was very choppy during the week, but it leapt above the $32.35 level in early trading on Friday. Since then, it cratered in later trading. Therefore, I think you need to be very cautious here.
Short-term pullbacks could end up being buying opportunities -- though, the last thing I would do is put a ton of money into this market as we head into such volatility. Remember, silver is extraordinarily volatile under the best of conditions, so caution is warranted. Regardless, I don’t have any interest in getting short here, but I might look for better pricing to get long.
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