Pairs In Focus - Sunday, Dec. 22
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Gold
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Gold traders have certainly been through a lot over the last couple of days, as the market fluctuated quite rapidly. The reality is that we are heading into the holiday season, and therefore I think liquidity will be thin and the market will continue to experience this back-and-forth movement. This will be especially true for the next two weeks, but in the longer-term, it’ll be interesting to see whether or not buyers can push the market above the $2730 level.
EUR/USD
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The euro plunged during a large portion of the week, before it then turned around to show signs of life. The 1.03 level seemed to be offering a bit of support, and the snap-back rally late in the week was coordinated with the idea that interest rates were dropping in America.
However, the die has been cast, and I do believe that the euro will continue to suffer due to the US dollar's strength. Rallies will likely offer selling opportunities that people can take advantage of on signs of exhaustion.
AUD/USD
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The Australian dollar plunged throughout the week, as it reached the 0.62 level. This level has been important previously, so it’s not a huge surprise to see that the Australian dollar bounced a bit from that point.
However, the Australian dollar will likely act unpredictably in the coming days, as Australia is so highly levered to the Chinese economy. Furthermore, interest rates in America will stay higher for longer than most people expected, so I think rallies in this currency pair may offer selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion.
NZD/USD
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The New Zealand dollar plummeted for the week, as almost everything fell against the US dollar. However, the New Zealand dollar seemed to be much weaker than the Australian dollar, and this may indicate how bad things are with the New Zealand dollar overall.
Short-term rallies will likely offer selling opportunities in a market that is clearly leaning in favor of the greenback. The 0.55 level is an area traders will likely be watching. If a break were to occur below that point, then the bottom could fall out.
Nasdaq 100
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The Nasdaq 100 moved all over the place during the week, as Jerome Powell's words seemingly sparked chaos after the FOMC rate decision.
Meanwhile, I think the index will continue to see a potential uptrend, but a large amount of noise should be expected as well. The 22,000 level above will continue to be a significant barrier, so a break above that point would be a very bullish sign. I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market anytime soon.
WTI Crude Oil
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Crude oil pulled back just a bit during the week, but the price has experienced sideways movement for the last couple of months, and I believe that will continue to be the case. With inflation picking up, and central banks around the world adding fuel to the fire by cutting rates, it’s likely that traders will eventually see crude oil break out. However, I expect to see more sideways action between now and the beginning of next year.
DAX
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The German index experienced a horrible week, but it is worth noting that the index bounced a bit from the crucial EUR19,750 level during Friday's trading session. This could give traders a little bit of hope for a bounce, but I think that would be asking a lot as the holiday season approaches.
That doesn’t mean that I’d be looking to short the DAX -- just that I’m not expecting much out of it over the next several sessions. The uptrend will likely continue, but it seems to have hit a bit of a hiccup in recent trading.
USD/MXN
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The US dollar initially shot higher against the Mexican peso during the trading week, but it appeared to run out of that momentum. The MXN20 level will continue to be an important one, but the candlestick for the week seemed to suggest that some type of pullback could be expected.
The US dollar gave back some of the strength that it had enjoyed previously, so it should not be a surprise that the market might need a pullback in order to find longer-term buyers again.
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