The Center for Immigration Studies reports Compared to 2019, All Employment Growth Has Gone to the Foreign-Born

Comparing the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2023 shows 2.7 million more people working in the United States — 2.9 million more immigrants (legal and illegal) and 183,000 fewer U.S.-born Americans. Since the depths of the Covid Recession in 2020 employment has increased for both groups. But the number of U.S.-born workers has not made it back to the 2019 pre-Covid level. Equally important, the share of working-age, U.S.-born men without a bachelor’s not in the labor force deteriorated in the decades prior to 2019, and the rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 was lower still. These individuals do not show up as unemployed because they have not looked for a job in the four weeks prior to the survey. The long-term decline in the labor force participation rate of less-educated men is linked to serious social problems, from suicide and crime to drug overdoses and social isolation.

This analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies is based on the Current Population Survey (CPS), collected by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We focus on the peak years of prior economic expansions (2000, 2006, and 2019) as well as 2023 because it is the most recent quarterly data available. Immigrants (legal and illegal together) in the CPS are often referred to as the “foreign-born” and include all persons who were not U.S. citizens at birth — primarily naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, long-term temporary visitors (e.g. guestworkers), and illegal immigrants.

Labor Force Participation Rate

The participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work.

85.5 percent of immigrants without a bachelor’s degree are either working or looking to work vs 75.6 percent of US-born workers.

There are many other charts in a data download in the above link. I created the following charts from BLS data available from the St. Louis Fed.

Employment Level in Thousands

(Click on image to enlarge)

BLS employment level data, chart by Mish

One of the problems with unadjusted data is you can only compare months to the same months in prior years. The yellow highlights show dips in employment every January as one might expect.

I prefer seasonally-adjusted data to compare any month to any other and to see when numbers peaked, but foreign-born employment is only unadjusted.

Nonetheless, my chart shows the same thing as the Center for Immigration chart.

From January 2020 through January 2024, employment rose from 156,994,000 to 159,650,000 for a gain of 2,656,000.

But all of that and then some was foreign born employment which rose from 27,066,000 to 29,842,000 for a gain of 2,776,000. Than means us-born employment is down 120,000 since January 2020.

Mass Deportations?

We have an uncontrolled mess at the border. But the idea we need to round them all up in mass deportations is more than a bit crazy in the opposite direction.

Mass deportations would lead to the biggest labor shortage in US history for picking crops, working on construction, cleaning hotel rooms, etc.

Inflation would be far worse than anything we have seen yet.

There is a reasonable middle ground somewhere, but no one trusts Biden to find it. Biden has flouted the Supreme court on student debt, on eviction moratoriums, and on EPA regulations.

Biden issued 64 regulations to open the border and now says he needs congressional authority to reverse them.

Are Ankle Bracelets the Answer?

That may sound like a joke question but on February 6, I noted Biden Proposes Ankle Bracelets and Commands Will Solve the Immigration Problem.

The proposal would put ankle bracelets on immigrants and tell them to show up for a preliminary hearing in 90 days. Then there would be a final hearing in another 90 days.

I asked “What is to stop someone from taking off the bracelet and vanishing forever in a sanctuary city?”

That silly proposal was the laughable concoction of a bipartisan secret deal months in the making.

The Deal in Trump’s Lap

When Trump was president, Chuck Schumer offered Trump a deal of $31 billion for a wall in return for amnesty for dreamers (defined as long-term immigrants).

I thought it was an excellent deal at the time and am certain of it now. Trump turned it down and never finished the wall.

The current choice on the table is now between uncontrollable chaos and open borders, or mass deportations with little or no immigration.

Good luck with that.

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