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January US Empire Manufacturing reading this morning was -43.7, much worse than the -5 estimated and much weaker than during the 2008 financial crisis/great recession.

January Empire Manufacturing Index plunged to -43.7 vs. -5 est. & -14.5 prior; interestingly, index was never this negative/weak during GFC … new orders sank to -49.4, shipments fell to -31.3, employment eased a touch to -6.9, and prices paid moved higher pic.twitter.com/uHDkVGiz5u

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 16, 2024

Meanwhile, the analyst consensus is for S&P earnings per share growth of more than 10 percent over the next 12 months (red line below since 2000, courtesy of Mikael Sarwe) even as nominal new orders are contracting (in blue). Typically, earnings follow new order trends.

At the same time, US Gross Domestic Income was -.2% year over year in the third quarter compared with a 2.9% estimate for GDP. This disconnect is extreme and commonly, GDP is revised lower in retrospect to meet GDI.

Dr. Hunt illuminates many of these readings in the segment here.

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