Numbers Due Tomorrow. Do They Matter?
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Although the government shutdown continues with no obvious end in sight, putting a halt to the usual pattern of economic data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be releasing September CPI data tomorrow morning. Although the figures were originally scheduled to be released nine days prior, the delay has not diminished stock and bond traders’ anticipation for these data points.
The BLS website features a terse explanation for the special circumstances:
BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.
The broader explanation is that the Social Security Administration must publish its annual cost-of-living adjustments by November 1st.The failure to update those numbers would be greeted negatively by the millions of Americans who rely on Social Security.Interestingly, the market and the retirees are on opposite sides of the fence on this topic.Investors want low inflation, but retirees want as big a number as possible.It’s their way of getting a raise, and everyone wants a bigger raise whenever possible.
Consensus estimates are for the headline CPI to rise by 0.4% on a month-over-month basis, which would be the same as the August rise. The monthly Core reading is expected to rise by a shade less, at 0.3%, also matching last month’s figure.This would imply year-over-year gains of 3.1% for both readings, meaning that the Core reading would be unchanged, and the headline would rise from last month’s 2.9%. That last feature would be relatively welcome news for retirees. On IBKR ForecastTrader, the current consensus applies an 81% probability of annual Core CPI not exceeding 3.1%, which implies that traders on that platform are a bit more sanguine than the median economist’s estimate.
Some of you might be doing some quick and obvious arithmetic and thinking, “hey, isn’t 3.1% above the Fed’s 2% inflation target?”Indeed, of course it is.This is something we’ve noted before, particularly after August’s Core CPI rose by 0.346%.That just missed being reported as rounded to a 0.4% gain rather than an as-expected 0.3% rise.Stocks rallied on the in-line report, and we described it as a rally based upon a whisker.
One thing to keep in mind, though, is that the FOMC is not predisposed to surprise markets unless they feel that one is required. Markets are pricing in a near-certain 25 basis point cut at next week’s (October 29th) meeting and considering that the various Fed talking heads had ample opportunities to dissuade traders from that notion in recent days but have chosen not to, one can reasonably assume that a cut is coming regardless of tomorrow’s inflation report.The question is whether tomorrow’s numbers bolster the case for another cut in December or beyond. In the meantime, I know what many retirees will be hoping for.
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