The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for November from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the widely watched new orders for manufactured durable goods increased by $6.5 billion, or 2.5%, to $268.3 billion in November. This is the sixth increase in seven months, after October’s new orders were revised from the 0.5% decrease to $260.

One billion reported last month, which served as a 0.1% increase to $261.7 billion, however, year-to-date new orders are now 21.5% above those of 2020, a decrease from the 22.1% year-over-year change we saw in the report last month.

An increase in the volatile monthly new orders for transportation equipment was responsible for most of this month’s increase, as new transportation equipment orders rose $5.0 billion, or 6.5%, to $82.1 billion, on top of a 34.1% increase to $13,310 million in new orders for commercial aircraft and parts. 

Excluding orders for transportation equipment, other new orders were up 0.8%. While excluding just new orders for defense equipment, new orders rose 2.0%. At the same time, new orders for non-defense capital goods minus aircraft, a proxy for equipment investment, fell by $65 million, or by 0.1%, to $78,801 million after rising by an upwardly revised 0.9% in October.

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted value of November’s shipments of durable goods, which will ultimately be included as inputs into various components of fourth quarter GDP after adjusting for changes in prices, increased for the sixth time in seven months, rising by $1.8 billion, or 0.7%, to $263.6 billion. The value of October shipments was revised from from $248.7 billion to $249.4 billion, now up 1.7% from September.

The value of shipments transportation equipment rose $0.7 billion, or 1.0%, to $76.4 billion, on top of a 1.7% increase in shipments of motor vehicles and parts. Though, shipments other than those of transportation equipment were also up 0.5% for the month. Of those, shipments of non-defense capital goods less aircraft rose 0.3% to $76,332 million, their ninth consecutive monthly increase.

At the same time, the value of seasonally adjusted inventories of durable goods, also a major GDP contributor, rose for the tenth consecutive month, increasing by $2.9 billion, or 0.6%, to $469.6 billion after October inventories were revised from $466.0 billion to $466,643 million. 

Increased inventories of machinery led the November increase, rising $2.9 billion, or 0.6%, to $469.6 billion, while inventories of transportation equipment rose just 0.1% to 154,026 million due to a 0.4% decrease in inventories of motor vehicles and parts. Excluding inventories of transportation equipment, the value of all other durable goods inventories rose 0.9%, while inventories of capital goods less aircraft rose 1.0% to $139,917 million.

Finally, unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods, which are probably a better measure of industry conditions than the widely watched but volatile new orders, rose for the tenth consecutive month, increasing by $8.9 billion, or 0.7%, to $1,259.9 billion after unfilled orders for October were revised from $1,249.7 billion to $1,250.9 billion.

A $5.7 billion, or 0.7%, increase to $831.2 billion in unfilled orders for transportation equipment led the November increase, but unfilled transportation equipment orders other than transportation equipment also rose 0.8% to $428,651 million.

Compared to a year earlier, the unfilled order book for durable goods is 6.2% above its level of last November, with unfilled orders for transportation equipment just 2.2% above their year ago level, despite a 16.5% increase in the backlog of orders for motor vehicles and parts.