New QCEW Data Indicates More Big Negative Revisions Coming To Job Reports

By Mish Shedlock of MishTalk

Tuesday, September 9, 2025 5:35 PM EDT

QCEW vs Nonfarm Payrolls

QCEW stands for Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program publishes a quarterly count of employment and wages reported by employers covering more than 95 percent of U.S. jobs, available at the county, MSA, state and national levels by industry.

The QCEW consists of 12.2 million establishments in the first quarter of 2024.

QCEW is 95 percent coverage of jobs. The Nonfarm payroll report surveys ~629,000 establishments with a response rate of 42.6 percent as of March 2025.

Thus, QCEW is a less timely but far more accurate representation of the labor market than the monthly nonfarm payroll jobs report.

New QCEW Data

Today the Department of Labor released Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for the first quarter of 2025.

The data is not seasonally adjusted but it could be and should be. Monthly data is only available on hard to locate forms.

Note the widening discrepancy between the QCEW data and the monthly nonfarm payroll reports.

Nonfarm Payrolls Gone Haywire

BLS Problems on Steroids

The BLS always has problems at economic turns, but the chart shows problems on steroids.

Something went seriously wrong with BLS nonfarm payroll reports after the covid pandemic.

In July of 2021, the BLS reported a year-over-year change of 7.5 million jobs. QCEW reported 8.7 million jobs. The BLS was low by 1.2 million jobs.

For March of 2025, the BLS reports a year-over-year change of 1.79 million jobs. QCEW reports 675,000 jobs. The BLS is now high by 1.115 million jobs.

QCEW vs Nonfarm Payrolls SA and NSA

The above chart shows the problem with working with unadjusted data. Month-over-month comparisons are only valid for seasonally adjusted data.

For unadjusted data, one must compare to the same month a year ago.

I do not have seasonal adjustments for the current quarter. The above seasonal adjustments are courtesy of Piper Sandler.

For December 2024, the BLS reported 158.942 million jobs. QCEW reported 155.386 million jobs. That’s a difference of 3.556 million. Only a portion of that is valid.

QCEW excludes proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid family members, certain farm and domestic workers, and railroad workers covered by the railroad unemployment insurance system. Also excluded are elected officials in the executive or legislative branch, members of the armed forces or the Commissioned Corps of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Neither QCEW nor CES include self-employed persons in their counts. Both BLS and QCEW may double count individuals with multiple jobs.

The numbers are not directly comparable but the trends sure are. Note the widening gap between seasonally adjusted numbers that did not exist pre-pandemic.

The Department of Labor could easily provide seasonal adjustments. It should, but doesn’t. I will post the adjusted numbers when I get them.

But the trends remain obvious in my lead, unadjusted chart. More steep negative revisions to the BLS monthly jobs reports are coming up. That’s the important takeaway.

A case can be made for all three. But there’s a clear winner.

September 3, 2025: The Unemployment Level Is Now Greater than Job Openings

For the first time since the pandemic unemployment is above openings.

The nonfarm payroll response rate is 42.6 percent with the same issues as with JOLTS

September 4, 2025: Year-Over-Year Small Business Employment Growth Barely Above Zero