The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Reportwas released this morning for last week. The 348,000 new claims number was an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's 334,000 (revised from 336,000). The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average, which is usually a better indicator of the trend, was unchanged at 338,250.

Here is the opening of the official statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending February 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claimswas 348,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 334,000. The 4-week moving average was 338,250, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. 

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending February 15, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 15 was 2,964,000, an increase of 8,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,956,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,954,750, an increase of 4,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,950,750.

Today's seasonally adjusted number at 348K came in substantially above the Investing.com forecast of 335K.

Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.

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As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

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Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author's bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

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Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, a 52-week moving average gives a better sense of the secular trends. I've added a linear regression through the data. We can see that this metric continued to fall below the long-term trend stretching back to 1968.

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A Four-Year Comparison

Here is an overlay of the past three calendar years and the beginning of 2013 using the 4-week moving average. The purpose is to show the relative annual slopes since the peak in the spring of 2009. Last year (blue line at the bottom) hit a trough at the first of October. It then oscillated higher to the end of the year. Our current year (the red series) was off to a great start but is now 6,000 off its low set five weeks ago. The 4-week moving average must resume its decline in order to keep the October 2013 low of 305,000 from being the business cycle trough for this indicator.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see my recent commentaryWhat Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk? Here is a snapshot from that analysis.

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For a broader view of unemployment, see the latest update in my monthly series Unemployment and the Market Since 1948.