New home sales by Census Bureau, chart by Mish

New Residential Construction

The Census Department released a heavily revised New Residential Construction report for March this morning.

• New Home Sales: Sales of new single-family houses in March 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000
• This is 8.8 percent (±17.2 percent) above the revised February rate of 637,000 and is 8.3 percent (±19.5 percent) above the March 2023 estimate of 640,000.
• Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2024 was $430,700. The average sales price was $524,800.
• For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 477,000. This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate.

Note the margins of error in this report, 17 percent and higher. And sales are not that much greater than in July of 1963.

New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction

Allegedly, there are 477,00 homes for sale but 106,000 of them have not been started.

282,000 homes have been started and 89,000 are complete.

There are 371,000 homes started or completed. That is the most since June of 2008. Good luck with that at these mortgage rates, currently 7.43 percent.

New Homes for Sale Supply

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From a fictitious number of new homes for sale of which 106,000 have not even been started, and a questionable and likely to be revised number of sales, the Census Bureau calculates a fictitious supply of 8.3 months.

Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales resumed their slide in March after two-month rally to start the year.

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Existing-home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) via the St. Louis Fed

On April 18, I noted Existing Home Sales Sink 4.3 Percent, Expect More Weakness

Housing Starts Plunge 14.7 Percent

Housing starts plunged in March, but for the past year, it’s really a tale of two markets, single-family vs multi-family.

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Housing starts from the Census Department, chart by Mish

On April 16, I noted Housing Starts Plunge 14.7 Percent, Multi-Family Very Weak For a Year

Multi-family construction has collapsed 42.2 percent since January 2023. In contrast, single-family construction is up 24 percent.

Expect more housing weakness with 30-year mortgage rates near 7.50 percent.

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