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New Home Sales data from Census Department, chart by Mish

The New Home Sales Report for January 2025 shows a huge percentage decline in sales but the data is mostly sideways.

Key Sales Numbers

• New Home Sales: Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000. This is 10.5 percent (±19.9 percent) below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent (±15.3 percent) below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000.
• Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2025 was $446,300. The average sales price was $510,000.
• For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 495,000. This represents a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales rate.

Note the huge margins of error in these reports, +- 19.9 percent. The 10.5 percent decline was based off an upward revision in December from 698,000 to 734,000.

Compared to the unrevised number, sales declined about 5.9 percent vs the reported 10.5 percent.

New Home Sales Annualized vs Homes for Sale Since 1963

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New Home Sales data from Census Department, chart by Mish

New home sales are annualized. Home for sale are straight up. Both are seasonally adjusted.

New Home Sales vs Housing Starts

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New Home Sales and Housing Starts from Census Department, chart by Mish

New home sales are single-family. Housing starts include multi-family.

New Homes for Sale Supply

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New Home Sales Supply from Census Department, chart by Mish

This is a bogus number because it includes vacant land not even started.

New Home Sales vs Existing Home Sales

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New Home Sales from Census Department, Existing-Home Sales from the NAR, chart by Mish

Note the scales. Existing-home sales dwarf new home sales.

But new home sales represent family formation, and there is much more that goes into building a new home than the typical remodeling that goes into existing homes.

Both sets of numbers have stabilized at low levels.

Demand will not pick up until mortgage rates and prices are both much lower.

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February 21, 2025: Existing-Home Sales Drop 4.9 Percent in January, More Than Expected

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