Negative Rates A Negative Force

The fighter with the glass jaw can persist indefinitely until he is hit. So it seems with the market; while economic vulnerabilities continue to mount, stocks are likely to hang in there until hit by a direct blow to the ever-fragile economic foundation.

There are many ways to describe this vulnerability, but we’ll focus on recent happenings. This weekend the G-20, a collection of the world’s 20 most important economies, had a summit in China. With the exception of very recent summits of large nations, this was the most motley collection of countries whose leaders assembled under one roof. In terms of income per capita, as shown by the Bloomberg chart, the range was about nine-fold with India at the rear at $6,000 and the U.S. in the lead with over $55,000. When you pair anorexics with the morbidly obese to discuss food labels, don’t expect consensus—their disparities are too great.

What makes this strange mix even more intractable: those countries that lag in per-capita incomes were not the smallest. China, fourth from the bottom in per-capita income, is the largest in overall income.Moreover, many low per-capita countries such as Brazil, Russia, South Africa, and China, have abundant natural resources—resources necessary for the rich per-capita countries to maintain their living standards.

The gathering agreed to pursue a growth agenda. This means all ways to boost growth, from current emphasis on monetary policy to government spending on badly needed infrastructure to structural reform tools that eliminate messy and stultifying bureaucracies. Unfortunately, the disparities among these countries make a win-win situation nearly impossible. One could argue that the only real winners will be those countries with the least per-capita income. It is not Biblical justice but simple economics that suggest the rich will likely prove bag holders. In general, the rise of the East at the expense of the West seems nearly inevitable. This doesn’t mean we should throw up our hands in despair but we should create a plan to keep what we have. For example, we should not rely on monetary policy alone to keep our heads above water. This exacerbates inequalities but also makes us vulnerable to bubbles inevitably created by free money.

What is happening today is frightening. We act as if commodity prices, which have started to rise, will never be a major factor in the world’s economies again. This is crazy. The global endowment of commodities has not magically grown. And we still need to develop far more than half the world. Any long-term equation between supply and demand for commodities suggests shortages and much higher prices.

Over the past few years—a lifetime for investors but hardly a second in terms of major economic trends—commodities have been hammered by several unforeseen factors. Most commodities were first blasted by a protracted European recession from 2011 to 2013 and then from 2014 through 2016 a monster decline in oil prices engineered by the Saudis and other major oil producers.

Commodity prices, despite a few signs of life, are still low enough to weigh heavy on many of the lower middle-class countries, whose growth is driven by commodities. And while low commodity prices should have driven growth in the richer countries, they did not, for many reasons. Immigration and inequalities stand out, plus growing government helplessness to take necessary step to enhance infrastructure investments. Most important, lower commodity prices reduced growth rates of the fast-growing developing countries, which in turn curtailed world trade and underscored lower growth for all.

The West’s extreme monetary measures include mindless negative yields, which is dangerous and puts us all in the path of wholesale destruction. What happens when the world changes and commodity prices really start to rise? If yields on trillions of dollars of debt are negative, those holding that debt will be hammered. If inflation and growth return, courtesy of demand that outstrips supplies of our finite but critical commodities, the potential perils more than match that of the housing bubble in 2007-2008. On Wall Street free lunches almost always come laced with poison.

We need a way out, and must start raising rates—perhaps gradually, but in a determined way to give investors the confidence that policymakers are not totally clueless but really do understand the current upside and downside risks. That would encourage the kind of investment that is missing. If policymakers set rates so low as to imply that a positive return on investment is nearly impossible, don’t be surprised, when no-one invests.

Not surprising the market has been torn between free money and massive risks. A ragged trading range has resulted. While we see very little upside from current levels, we still don’t have the necessary conditions for a major decline—10 or 15 percent possibly—but a full-fledged bear market is not in the cards. Hold your gold along with solid growth and value stocks.

Disclosure: None.

See our Leeb's Real World Investing June issue for our recommended silver plays.

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