The Nasdaq 100 has fell hard during the trading session on Friday and has broken down below the 200-Day EMA. The market is going to continue to see noise around the 13,500 level. 

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The market pulling back the way it has suggests that perhaps we have a little bit of negativity ahead of us. The 13,000 level underneath would be a potential support level, as it was a previous resistance barrier. A certain amount of “market memory” is going to continue to be a major factor there. Furthermore, we also have the 50-Day EMA reaching towards that area as well.

If we were to break down below the 50 Day EMA, then it’s likely that the market could go down to the 12,000 level. The 12,000 level would have a certain amount of support from a psychological standpoint, and an area where we had bounced from. If we can break down below the 12,000 level, then it’s likely that we are going to go down to the 11,000 level. The 11,000 level was a major scene of support and any move below that level could open up a firestorm of selling.

What will be for the week ahead?

We have been rallying for a while, and now that we have challenged this area and failed, it’ll be interesting to see how next week plays out, due to the fact that central bankers are going to be speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium and talking about inflation. After all, inflation is roaring around the world, and central bankers are going to have to do something to address this. In other words, they will more likely than not continue to pound on the idea of raising interest rates, and if that’s going to be the case that works against the Nasdaq 100 quite stringently.

• This next week is going to be very noisy, and today probably will be a continuation of the pullback.
• If we do rally, it’s not until we get through this coming week that I would be comfortable going long unless, we make a fresh, new high, after some type of litany of speeches in Wyoming that could be looked through.
• I don’t necessarily think that the situation is going to continue to see a “whistle past the graveyard” type of move.

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