National Association of Homebuilders data, chart by Mish

Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December 2022.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

NAHB Housing Market Sentiment Component Indexes Detail 

NAHB Housing Market Composite Index

National Association of Homebuilders HMI Index, chart by Mish

Bloomberg Econoday Consensus Outlook

"Spiraling downward, the housing market index has missed Econoday's consensus every month this year. November's 33 was 3 points short of the consensus. December's consensus is 34."

December's 31 was also 3 points lower than consensus and 1 point lower than the entire consensus range of 32-35.

Well done! Perfection for 12 months is very difficult. 

Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9 Percent

Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Louis Fed

On November 18, I noted Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9 Percent

We have another report later this week. Will it be 10 in a row? 

The Fed's Industrial Production Report is a Disaster, Cyclical Data Signals Recession

In case you missed it, The Fed's Industrial Production Report is a Disaster, Cyclical Data Signals Recession

Massive Collapse in Used Car Prices and Bankrupt Dealers Is Coming Right Up

Also on the economic front a Massive Collapse in Used Car Prices and Bankrupt Dealers Is Coming Right Up

The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower by 1.2 Million for Q2

On December 16, 2022 The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower by 1.2 Million for Q2

Not to worry, I am told there is no housing crash because prices haven't fallen and the Philadelphia Fed revision is just noise. 

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