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Still Above 50 But Plunging Fast

Still above 50, which means still positive, but dropping fast with 2nd largest month-to-month drop since at least 1985. pic.twitter.com/fPOkHU7qkb

— Randy Woodward (@TheBondFreak) July 18, 2022

Second Biggest Drop in history

Home builder sentiment thread:

The Housing Market Index fell from 67 in June to 55 in July, the lowest reading since May 2020, according to the @NAHBhome and @WellsFargo. pic.twitter.com/OJMuIhTPTo

— Chad Moutray (@chadmoutray) July 18, 2022

Econoday Consensus

The housing market index has missed Econoday's consensus every report so far this year including June's 2-point loss to 67. July's consensus is 66.

Only the temporary Covid-related plunge was worse. This won't be temporary.

Understanding This Recession

Cyclicals (durable goods and housing) tell us that a recession is already underway.

For discussion, please see A Big Housing Bust is the Key to Understanding This Recession

For more on cyclical components including a video by Basmajian, please see Cyclical Components of GDP, the Most Important Chart in Macro

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