The USDA resurvey of the 2024 US plantings in the US August crop report did some dipsey doodling with their US corn and soybean plantings from the NASS June acreage report.  After increasing the US corn plantings by 1.44 million acres to 91.48 million in June, the latest update placed this year’s area at 90.75 million acres.

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This was a 727,000 smaller than 6 weeks ago.  The USDA’s June acreage update had lowered the US soybean seedings by 410,000 from their March’s intentions.  However, the latest US soybean plantings were projected at 87.1 million, up 1 million from June 28 report.  These dramatic changes prompted a sharp sell-off in soybeans while corn hovered after the report before it short-covered late on today’s modest 24 million smaller 2024/25 ending stocks to 2.073 billion bu. 

Along with flooding in NW Corn Belt, other changes were afoot in 2024’s corn plantings in June. Hefty declines were reported in IA (-200,000) & SD (-200,000) & IL (-100) while ND (+150), MN (+100) and IN (+100,000) were higher. NE & OH were unchanged from June levels. The largest percent decline in plantings areas from June to August occurred in the Mid-South and SE with a 480,000 drop to 4.095 million or 10.5% decline because spring wetness, summer heat/dryness and now Hurricane Debbie moving up the coast. Compensating for these lower US acres, the USDA’s satellite system is forecasting a 183.1 US yield- up from the World Board’s 181 bu May trend yield. There wasn’t any enumerator data in this month’s NASS crop report since plots aren’t placed until Sept.  Some dramatic 40-55 bu corn yield cuts were made in South and the SE this month, but the satellite must have found some green in IL with its 225 yield (+11 over 2022’s 214), IA at a 209 yield (+5 over 2021 record ) and IN at 207 yield (+4 over 2023 record). MN, NE, MO ND had some strong yields but no records this month according to the USDA.

Overall, the US total corn crop went up 47 million to 15.147 billion in August.  The World Board sliced corn’s food demand by 15 million on both old & new crop bu and upped corn’s export demand 25 million for old-crop and 75 million for 2024/25. Internationally, Argentina was lower by 1 mmt to 50 while Brazil was unchanged at 122 mmt, but the Europe’s est. was sliced by 3.5 mmt because of poor weather.  Overall, this resulted in a 24 million smaller 2024/25 US carryover of 2.073 billion which helped his pit’s prices to firm on the close. 

Today’s dramatic 1 million acre jump in US soybean plantings took the steam out US bean price seconds after its 11 Am announcement pressing new crop prices below $10.00 bu. Bean plantings jumpd in SD (+350,000) & OH (200,000) with IA (+100), IL (+150) and IN (+50) also increasing. MN (-200) and ND (-50) decreased seedings from their June 28 estimates. The South and SE plantings were also dinged by this summer poor weather.  Earlier on the US 6/28 acreage update, soybean seedings declined by 410,00 from last spring’s planting intentions.  With only a producer survey and the USDA’s satellite program being utilized this month, the World Board’s overall US yield was upped to 53.2. This is 1.2 bu increase from May’s initial trend line yield of 52.0 bu for this year.  IL (66 bu), IN (62), OH (59), MS (58) & AR (57) all project new record state yields this year. Many states like (IA-61), (NE-59) and (MN-49) also had strong yield forecasted even if no new records were posted.  

Overall, the USDA’s NASS higher yield and larger US plantings are now projecting a 154 million larger output of 4.589 billion bu for 2024/25. This record crop size and sizable beginning stocks is projecting the largest US crop season supply of 4.949 billion bu. Even with 25 million increase in beans new-crop exports, the World Board is forecasting a 125 mil. larger carryover of 560 million bu for 24/25 season. This would be the highest US soybean ending stocks since the 2019/20 crop year. Internationally, the World Board nipped 500,000 tons off of Argentina’s crop to 49.0 but they left Brazil’s bean crop unchanged at 153 mmt. The US’s 4.2 mmt larger crop also has helped raise the coming year’s world ending stocks by 6.5 mmt to 134.30.  The US and S American weather over the next 4-5 months will determine how much oversupply in world soybeans will occur this year.

The US August total wheat crop declined by 26 million bu vs the trade’s expectations for a 7 million rise in our overall crop output.  A 34 million drop in the US spring wheat output because of a 555,000 reduction in this crop’s harvested area from primarily SD & MN was the reason for wheat’s smaller overall crop this month.  Durum’s output was also 12 million bu smaller because of 75,000 reduced harvested area in ND. Winter wheat’s overall crop size rose 20 million with hard red up 13 and white up 9 million bu while soft soft was 2 million lower. Today’s unexpected spring wheat output decline firmed this variety while Chicago and KC were slightly lower.

No changes in US wheat demand levels this month so the smaller US output lowered this foodgrains’ stocks by 26 million to 828 million this month.  Internationally, the World Board’s 24/25 crop rose 2 mmt to 798 with Australia up 1 mmt to 30, Canada unchanged, EU down 2 mmt to 128, Russia unchanged and Ukraine up 2.1 mmt 21.60 while the US was down 73,000 tons. The USDA however sliced its world carryover by 62,000 to 256.62  mmt because of higher domestic feeding.   Wheat has been treading sideways as a pick-up in oversea demand has counter this year’s 9 mmt slightly higher world output.

Overall, the USDA August crop report had some surprises for both the bulls (corn & wheat) and the bears (soybeans).  Old-crop basis levels have been slipping so utilizing near term bounces to clear our out old-crop corn and bean supplies seems the best approach so you can hold more of your new-crop harvest bushels. 

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