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The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading in a tight range against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, following the Greenback's recovery from Monday’s sell-off.

With USD/MXN trading above the psychological support level at 19.20, the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is providing resistance at 19.31.

US Job Openings increase in April, providing slight optimism for the US Dollar

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed JOLTS beat analyst forecasts, posting a 7.391 million increase in the number of job openings in April. The results came in above the estimated 7.1 million increase and higher than March's 7.2 million increase.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook commented on the current state of the US economy. In her speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, she stated that: "I see the US economy as still being in a solid position, but heightened uncertainty poses risks to both price stability and unemployment." Although this comment alone may seem to reiterate the Fed’s hawkish tone, Cook also stated that "The resulting policy decisions may look quite different from those that would be optimal under certainty."

These comments reaffirm the Fed’s commitment to maintaining a cautious balance between economic growth and price stability. For the Fed’s next move, job data released throughout this week remains key, with emphasis on Friday’s NFP numbers.

Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN stalls with prices above 19.20

• The release of the JOLTS data has helped ease fears surrounding a softening labour market in the United States, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to deviate from its hawkish monetary policy stance in the near term.
• Factory Orders, released on Tuesday, reflected a 3.7% MoM decline in April, missing analyst forecasts of a 3% contraction. Although the data came in well below the 3.4% increase in March, tariffs implemented in early April played a major role in influencing demand for goods from US manufacturers. For this reason, the economic data print had a limited influence on the momentum of the US Dollar.
• On Wednesday, the ADP Employment data will be released at 12:15 GMT, reflecting the number of jobs added to the US private sector in May. Analysts expect the report to show that the private sector added 115,000 jobs last month, nearly double the 62,000 added in April.
• Friday’s NFP figures are expected to show that 130,000 new jobs were added to the US economy in May, down from 177,000 in April.
• Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, reflecting a resilient US labour market.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants are currently pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut in September. For June and July meetings, the expectation is that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate at the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.
• On Thursday, Mexico will release the Consumer Confidence data for May, which gauges how individuals and consumers in Mexico perceive the economy's resilience in the face of current economic risks, as well as their expectations for near-term growth prospects. 
• With April’s reading of 45.5 serving as the benchmark, any upside or downside surprises could further influence the direction of the Mexican Peso.

Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN remains conflicted above psychological support

USD/MXN is currently trading below the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing near-term support at 19.31. With the 20-day SMA standing at 19.38, the 19.20 psychological level has become a support level.

For the pair’s next move, technical and fundamental headwinds remain in place.

A break above the 20-day SMA would bring the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the October–February rally (near 19.58) into focus, and a successful move beyond that could open the door to the 23.6% Fib of the April–May decline around 19.63. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 45, indicating that bearish momentum is fading, although it has not yet signaled bullish strength. 

USD/MXN daily chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

On the downside, a break below the 10-day SMA and psychological support at 19.30 would reassert bearish control, potentially pushing prices down to prior resistance at 19.28 and the May low at 19.18. This makes the current range a critical battleground for short-term direction.

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