Mega-Cap Sentiment Teetering On A Shaky High Bar

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Alphabet’s (GOOGL) earnings report showed revenue that outpaced expectations, yet the stock decided to take a downturn. Meanwhile, Tesla’s (TSLA) performance resembled a car that wouldn’t start: profits sputtered, and they delayed their eagerly awaited Robotaxi event to October. The kickoff of earnings season for the "Magnificent Seven" didn’t exactly call for a ticker-tape parade on Wall Street, leaving mega-cap sentiment teetering on a shaky high bar.

Questions about what is and isn't priced in for single stocks usually get sorted out in short order. However, the market is not entirely impressed as most investors seem to be in “ show me the (more) money” mode.

Beyond earnings, the economic calendar is taking a breather until Thursday's U.S. second-quarter GDP release and Friday's June Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Markets are wagering that these indicators will give the Fed the green light to take it easy in September. However, any hiccup in the cooling inflation trend could add a plot twist to this Fed soap opera.

On the political front, volatility is brewing. Despite the VIX taking a nap on Tuesday, the new U.S. election landscape tells a different story. Vice President Kamala Harris is practically the Democratic nominee, set to face off against Republican Donald Trump on November 5 after President Joe Biden bowed out of the race on Sunday. With the polls tightening, we're gearing up for what’s sure to be a dramatic campaign season. Buckle up, as investors will likely ride a roller coaster of emotions with every twist and turn in the polling data.

Despite the VIX taking a break, the Japanese Yen (JPY) performed strongly overnight, capitalizing on the pre-BoJ position reduction in an oversold JPY market.

Crude oil ended the New York session lower, influenced by a breach of key technical levels (50—and 100-day MAs). This has intensified selling in a decidedly bearish atmosphere, facing a challenging macro environment. Recent economic indicators from China exacerbated the downward pressure on oil prices.


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