Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in March 2025 is $82,675. This figure is just $24 (0.03%) higher than the firm's initial estimate of median household income of $82,651 in February 2025.

Motio Research's estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey, which are conducted in the month following the month in question during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for March 2025 is 116.5.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through March 2025:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index last peaked in September 2024 and has been in a slowly falling trend in the months since.

This month, Motio Research has provided their estimate for annual median household income during 2024. Here's what they report in their press release:

Motio's March estimate of median household income serves as an early indicator of the Census Bureau’s official annual estimates. While the Census releases its median household income estimate for each calendar year in September of the following year, Motio’s more timely monthly estimates can be used to anticipate the official figures several months in advance.

Real median household income is estimated to have declined by 1.0% in 2024, from $82,730 in 2023 to $81,910 in 2024, after adjusting for inflation using the Chained Consumer Price Index. The 95% confidence interval for the real change ranges from a 2.2% decline to a slight 0.2% increase.

This anticipated decline in real median household income for 2024 would follow a rebound in 2023, which came after three consecutive years of inflation-adjusted declines from 2020 to 2022. Motio’s estimates predicted the 2023 rebound. The retreat projected for 2024 underscores the ongoing economic pressures facing U.S. households and highlights the importance of timely data for tracking changes in household economic well-being.

The decline in real median household income during 2024 was a contributing factor to the outcome of 2024's U.S. elections.

The U.S. Census Bureau collected the data that it will use to produce its official estimate of 2024's median household income just last month (March 2025). They will spend the next several months processing and analyzing the data they collected before publishing it sometime during September 2025. At this writing, no release date has been announced.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement Motio Research's monthly survey-based estimates, which we derive from aggregate income data produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Our initial estimate of median household income in March 2025 based upon our alternate methodology is $82,971, which is $85 (or 0.1%) higher than our initial February 2025 estimate of $82,886. Our median household income estimate is $286 (0.4%) higher than Motio Research's March 2025 estimate.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through March 2025. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant March 2025 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. For March 2025, this data includes extremely small revisions for January (+0.013%) and February 2025 (-0.006%).

For the latest in our coverage of median household income in the United States, follow this link!

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 April 2025. Accessed: 30 April 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 April 2025. Accessed: 30 April 2025.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 10 April 2025. Accessed: 10 April 2025.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

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