The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) had its best week to date in 2025, rising 4.6% to close out the trading week ending on Friday, 25 April 2025 at 5,525.21.

It was an especially good week for the index' mega-cap Big-Tech stocks, with much of the increase of the index driven by their outsized concentration within it. Here's a quick summary of how much the share prices of the S&P 500's Top 10 stocks changed over the preceding week:

• Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) $209.28 (+7.8%)
• Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) $391.85 (+7.9%)
• Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) $111.01 (+13.4%)
• Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) $188.99 (+12.2%)
• Meta Platforms (A) (Nasdaq: META) $547.27 (+11.8%)
• Berkshire Hathaway (B) (NYSE: BRK-B) $530.96 (+2.4%)
• Alphabet (A) (Nasdaq: GOOGL) $161.96 (+9.1%)
• Broadcom (Nasdaq: AVGO) $192.31 (+14.8%)
• Alphabet (C) (Nasdaq: GOOG) $163.85 (+8.8%)
• Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) $284.95 (+24.2%)

One of these stocks is not like the others, as Berkshire Hathaway is not a member of the mega-cap Big-Tech club, which makes it a representative of what the stocks of the rest of the index experienced on average during the week. As for the mega-cap Big Tech club, most of these stocks have been hammered during the year-to-date going into the week, with many having been taken down with the deflation of the AI bubble after the 21 February 2025 announcement the code behind China's DeepSeek artificial intelligence system would be made open source.

The change in fortune for these firms is such we may need to consider whether another new market regime is taking shape. The current market regime took hold after 21 February 2025, which is something we'll be evaluating behind the scenes for the dividend futures-based model over the next weeks. We'll also be weighing whether investors have shifted their forward-looking focus from the current quarter of 2025-Q4 toward the more distant investment horizon of 2025-Q4.

Speaking of the dividend futures-based model, here's the latest update of the alternative futures charts. We find the trajectory of the S&P 500 has soared above the redzone forecast range, which we've extended two weeks longer to account for the ongoing high volatility of stock prices.

We're considering the potential of an outward shift in the time horizon of investors because earnings season is now underway, in which companies are projecting their outlooks through the end of the current year, and because of recent changes in investor expectations of rate cuts during 2025-Q4.

On that count, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will still hold off in resuming its cuts of the Federal Funds Rate until the conclusion of its 18 June (2025-Q2) meeting, at which time it will reduce this interest rate by 0.25%. Afterward, the FedWatch Tool forecasts the Fed will reduce U.S. interest rates three more times before the end of 2025, which is a development that's taken place during the last two weeks. The FedWatch Tool foresees 0.25% cuts in the Federal Funds Rate on 30 July (2025-Q3), 29 October (2025-Q4), and 10 December (2025-Q4).

Here are the market-moving headlines that informed investor expectations during the past week.

Monday, 21 April 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Trump warns of economic slowdown unless Fed cuts rates, triggering selloff
    • Trump renews attack on Federal Reserve Chair Powell, Dow Jones tumbles 1,000 points
  • Oil falls over 2% on signs of progress in US-Iran talks, demand fears
• Fed minions say persistent Bidenflation keeping them from cutting U.S. interest rates:
  • With inflation progress slow, Fed's Daly says rate cuts may need to wait
  • Fed's Goolsbee hopes US not moving to where monetary independence is questioned
• Bigger trouble developing in China after pre-tariff export push:
  • China's export controls are curbing critical mineral shipments to the world
  • China's fiscal revenue falls 1.1% in January-March
  • China's Q1 automobile exports up 16% y/y, industry official says
  • China central bank urges state-owned businesses to prioritise yuan in overseas expansion
• BOJ minions say they'll keep hiking Japan's interest rates if inflation remains on track, but core inflation picks up speed:
  • BOJ will keep raising rates if inflation on track, Governor Ueda says
  • Japan's core inflation accelerates, complicating BOJ's rate path
• ECB minion says U.S. chief Fed minion is their idea of an "exemplary" central banker:
  • Fed's Powell is an exemplary central banker, ECB's Villeroy says
• Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow finished sharply lower as Trump feuds with Powell
  • Wall St ends sharply lower following Trump's anti-Powell tirade

Tuesday, 22 April 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil prices settle up nearly 2% on new Iran sanctions, equities rally
  • US auto industry warns new auto parts tariffs will hike prices, cut sales
  • US Treasury Secretary says situation with China is unsustainable, source says
• Chief Fed minion's job appears safe… for now:
  • Trump: No plans to fire Fed Chair Powell, but wants lower rates
    • Stock futures soar as Trump says 'no intention' of axing Fed Chairman Powell
• Fed minions stay noncommittal on when they'll resume rate cuts, think US poverty levels understated in recent years:
  • Fed's Kashkari says 'too soon to judge' interest rate path
  • Fed's Harker says US poverty levels may be understated
• BOJ minions act like they will try to keep plan to hike Japan's interest rates alive:
  • BOJ likely to keep rate-hike signal intact despite Trump tariff risks, sources say
• ECB minions claim they're close to hitting inflation target and that Eurozone economy was looking good before US tariffs:
  • ECB close to hitting inflation target, Kazimir says
    • ECB survey sees inflation stabilising at 2%
  • Euro zone firms were seeing improved business momentum before tariffs, ECB says
• Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow rallied higher a day after markets observed a large sell-off
  • Wall Street ends higher on earnings, hopes of easing tariff tensions
  • Gold's record run gains further traction; market conquers $3,500/oz

Wednesday, 23 April 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil falls 2% after sources say OPEC+ to mull accelerating output
    • Exclusive: OPEC+ to consider another accelerated oil output increase for June
  • US PMIs Scream Stagflation As Manufacturing 'Contracts', Prices Rise, Heaviest Job Cuts Since GFC
  • US new home sales jump in March; supply still rising
  • Donald Trump to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs
• Fed minions say they'll hold the Federal Funds Rate where it is for longer, plan to keep keep letting maturing U.S. Treasuries drop off their books:
  • Fed's Kugler, citing inflation risks, supports steady policy rate
  • Fed's Hammack sees more runway for Fed balance sheet cuts
• Bigger bailouts, trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • China property tycoons become creditors’ labourers
• IMF minions don't think BOJ minions will follow through on plan to hike Japan's interest rates:
  • IMF expects BOJ to delay further rate hikes due to tariff uncertainty
• ECB minions think Eurozone inflation will keep falling as Eurozone economy keeps flailing:
  • ECB's Knot sees inflation falling faster in near term
    • ECB expects wage growth to ease considerably this year
  • European business growth stalls in April, PMIs show
• Wall Street ends off session high, but rally extends with Nasdaq up 2.5%, S&P up about 2%

Thursday, 24 April 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil prices settle up on weaker US dollar, mixed economic news
  • Global container shipping volume to fall 1% on Trump trade policies, Drewry says
• Fed minions get mixed picture of economy:
  • Price hikes, a rush to buy autos, and uncertainty in wake of Trump tariffs -- Fed report
  • Fed's Kashkari nervous that trade policy uncertainty will lead to layoffs
• Bigger trouble, anemic stimulus developing in China:
  • Chinese factories slow production and send workers home as US tariffs bite
  • Tariff-hit China exporters reluctant to heed government calls to sell locally
• ECB minions getting excited for their next Eurozone interest rate cut, starting to think about moving faster on their next moves:
  • ECB policymaker Rehn plays up chance of rate cut in June
    • ECB's Rehn says central bank may need to lower interest rates, Bloomberg News reports
  • ECB eyeing more nimble policy moves amid price shocks, Bloomberg News reports
• Nasdaq rises nearly 3%, S&P adds 2% as Wall Street posts three-day win streak

Friday, 25 April 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil posts weekly fall on tariff worry and rising supplies
    • US shale patch slows down as oil prices sink
  • Trump says China's Xi has called him and that US and China are in trade talks, Time reports
• Fed minions say they'll be patient before doing anything about tariff impact to economy, receive criticism from former minion:
  • Fed's Hammack says time for Fed to be patient on policy - CNBC
  • Former Fed governor Warsh blasts US central bank for leaving its lane
• Some tariff relief for US goods developing in China:
  • China exempts some goods from US tariffs
• Wall Street's four-day rally takes it to a nearly 5% weekly advance
  • Back To Where We Started (Almost)
    • Is the bottom in? S&P 500 makes quick exit from correction territory
  • Wall Street ends with weekly gains as trade negotiations, earnings in focus
  • Analysts praise Alphabet after results amaze Wall Street

The raw Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of what real GDP growth will be in 2025-Q1 dipped to -2.5% from its -2.2% estimate a week earlier, which is misleading. The GDPNow tool's alternate model forecast, which corrects for an extraordinary surge in gold imports during the quarter that's badly skewing the GDPNow tool's raw projection, declined from an estimate of -0.1% growth to -0.4% growth, meaning the real economy likely shrank by a small percentage during the first quarter.

That's not unexpected as a recession forecasting model based on the level of the Federal Funds Rate and the U.S. Treasury yield curve signaled a recession was likely to start during this period more than a year ago. We should get the BEA's first estimate of GDP during 2025-Q1 this week, while the GDPNow tool will reset its focus to the now-current quarter of 2025-Q2.

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