Measuring The Mania

It seems everyone is talking about Bitcoin these days. On ZeroHedge, I’d say easily half the articles are crypto-related. And why not? The equity market has become a bore. How much can you say about a market which basically goes up about half a percent day after day until the end of time? I’ve anchored my life to discussing equity markets, God help me, so having something that actually moves up AND down is exciting and novel after the past eight years.

Of course, daring to predict ANYTHING about cryptos is a fool’s errand. Just a few months ago, a Bitcoin trader and “expert” offered up this prediction for the second half of the year:

So – – basically down to “S3” at about $1200 and then a tremendous rally to $3,000 by about now. Of course, nothing like that took place. As I’m typing this, we’re around $17,000 or so (click here to see the latest chart) and there was never any big dip – – except maybe for the chap who created the aforementioned chart in the first place.

Some predictions – – maybe even wild guesses – – have been closer to the mark. Way back in December 2013, the Winklevoss twins (of Social Network fame) made the lunatic prediction that Bitcoin would rise to $40,000 (it was $1,000 at the time). Surely that seemed to be stark raving mad, and also quite self-serving, since they had bought $11 million of Bitcoin.

And how foolish they must have looked (and felt) when just weeks after their ridiculous prediction, Bitcoin fell 90% – – NINETY PERCENT!! – – which made it look like it was a ruinous choice. I confess, I’d have been the first one laughing. But he who laughs last laughs loudest, and the Winklevii are laughing their assess off now, since their stake is approaching $2 billion. Their $40,000 prediction is, to some, looking conservative.

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