Markets Stabilize Across Broad Bottom
After yesterday's big recovery it was going to be hard for markets to follow through today but I would be looking for a recovery bounce to challenge March swing lows, before a retest of the April lows.
I have illustrated this on the S&P, now we just need the index to conform :) We likely have had the capitulation volume, although technicals are a long way from turning bullish. Should markets take out 5,500 on this current bounce, then a V-recovery becomes favored.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) has a bounce target of $200 (psychological resistance) before a revisit target of $171.
The Nasdaq is more likely to engage in a V-recovery as it has enjoyed stronger trading volumes than peer indices; a close above the 20-day MA would likely confirm.
Trump's stay of execution simply pauses the sell-off, but it will give the market time to consolidate. While a v-recovery is possible, it's hard to see this happening with the 90-day pause and the increased tension with China over tariffs. What might be more interesting is if markets continue to drift, will Trump be forced to abandon tariffs altogether - particularly if America debt holders increase bond selling.
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