Market indices posted another session in the green today, though off the highs we saw around midday. All indices are now back in positive territory year to date off lows posted a week ago, but they’re also all still down over the past month of trading — from -2.55% (Nasdaq) to -4.07% (Russell 2000). Today, the Dow — off its +294 points at session highs — closed +134 points, +0.40%; the S&P 500 rose +0.52%. The Nasdaq grew even higher, +0.58%, and the small-cap Russell easily surpassed the other major indices, +1.35%.

Bank stocks were up, as were green energy equities. Oil was flat and bond rates came down after yesterday’s holiday. Basically, those industries being most challenged by high-interest-rate headwinds caught a bid today, whereas previous market leaders took a powder. Bond yields, in particular, cooled notably from a fast rise last week, with the 10-year giving up 15+ basis points to 4.65% and the 2-year back under 5% — 4.96%.

Dovish sentiment from two more Fed officials helped foster the positive sentiment today. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated a phrase used elsewhere from the monetary policy body, that rates are currently “sufficiently restrictive,” though there is still a long way to go. This is clearly a reference to no new hikes in the near or distant future. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the U.S. economy “seems to be on track for a soft landing.” Currently, the odds are only around 30% that a new rate hike is coming in November, 45% for December.

Further, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it is now “more likely” we will see a soft landing in the U.S. and not a recession, as it upped its guidance for 2024 economic growth in the U.S. to +1.5%. The IMF still expects +2.1% overall growth for 2023. The IMF sees global growth dwindling from +3.5% last year to a +3.0% guide for 2023 and +2.9% in 2024.

We await pricing for Birkenstock’s IPO this week. The nearly 250-year-old footwear company started in Germany (its Sales & Service HQ is currently in Novato, CA) had been taken over by private equity partners just two years ago, and is currently expected to raise $1.6 billion on $9.2 billion non-diluted revenue. A total of 32 million shares are expected on offer, with an IPO price likely between $44-49 per share.o

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