Markets Reach For Record Highs: Weekly Nifty 9

Research Report Excerpt #1

Over my many years of investing and providing a financial market service to investors, I’ve found the perception principle reins supreme amongst investors/traders. It’s often very, very detrimental to the average investor/trader as well. Here’s what I mean by way of the following tweet via Michael Santoli of CNBC. (Again, Seth’s tweet):

The so-called MysteryBroker (someone Santoli worked with formerly at Barron’s), has been a well-tweeted narrative by Michael Santoli since late 2020, and followed by thousands upon thousands of investors/traders. As the tweet was offered by Santoli on May 24th, the MysteryBroker forecasted a significant correction 5 weeks prior to that May 24th update. Two trading weeks since, and the market narrowly missed a new all-time high on Friday.

Most investors/traders don’t have access to the famed CNBC hosting personality that is Michael Santoli. They perceive his hosting gig to be a validation of his market/investing expertise. The noise created by the MysteryBroker narrative since late 2020 captivates many based on the fear-driven narrative and inaccessible personality of the CNBC host. The noise distracts from one key underlying fact within the tweets about the MysteryBroker though. While many have latched on to the forecasting from the MysteryBroker, they overlook the fact that Santoli is relying on someone else’s perceived expertise as well. Why does a perceived expert (by the average investor/trader) need to rely on someone else’s expertise? Forest for the trees as they say!

The message from this analysis is simple and something I think all Finom Group members, including myself, may need to consider more deeply: No one is an investing or analytical expert, some are simply better than others.

Research Report Excerpt #2

The Cycle Composite tells us the market is also doing what it typically does from this point forward. We may still yet find a rough patch during the Summer Doldrums as indicated in the Cycle Composite for 2021, which calculates the 1-yr. Seasonal cycle, 4-yr. Presidential cycle, and 10-yr Decennial cycle on an equal-weight basis.

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