March To Enter Like A Lion, Bouncing March Gas

March gas settled up almost a percent and a half higher on the day today as Week 2 forecasts trended colder over the weekend and physical gas prices were firm today. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Yet despite strong cash prices, it was actually the July natural gas contract that logged the largest gain today. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Futures first bounced on Henry Hub cash prices trading over $2.7 this morning. 

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natural gas commodity weather

This came following our Morning Update which highlighted "Slightly Bullish" risks for natural gas prices today due to colder long-range forecasts and impressive recent demand. 

natural gas commodity weather

natural gas commodity weather

Long-range GEFS forecasts then maintained these significant cold risks, and though the 12z run lost a few HDDs it still proved to be supportive this afternoon following a solidly warmer operational GFS (images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). 

natural gas commodity weather

Traders are also positioning ahead of what should be a large storage withdraw announced on Thursday. Dominion Transmission announced their third largest draw of the season yesterday. 

natural gas commodity weather

 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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Alexander Straub 2 months ago Member's comment

Jacob, thank you for your insights. The charts have been particularly helpful.