March Recap: Largest Canadian Cannabis LPs Down 13.5%

The 5 largest licensed producers (LPs), as tracked in our munKNEE Canadian Cannabis LPs Index, are ranked below in descending order as to:

  • their stock performances in March and year-to-date (YTD),
  • their likelihood of Financial Distress within the next 2 years (according to data from macroaxis.com),
  • their average 12-month Price Targets (from SeekingAlpha.com), 
  • the extent of Short Interest and Insider Ownership and
  • their current market capitalizations.
  1. Cronos (CRON): DOWN 1.5% in March; DOWN 23.0% YTD
    • 18 analysts:
      • have an average 12-month price target representing a 46.9% increase from its March 31st price and
      • have a consensus BUY rating.
    • In addition, CRON has:
      • a 2% chance of Financial Distress within 2 years,
      • a Short Interest (the number of shorted shares divided by the number of shares outstanding) of only 3.7%,
      • an Insider Ownership (directors and senior officers or other beneficial holders with 10% or more of the common shares) of only 5.1% and
      • a current market capitalization of $717M.
    • Altria Group (MO) has a 45% stake in CRON
  2. Tilray (TLRY): DOWN 10.6% in March; DOWN 5.2% YTD
    • 22 analysts:
      • have an average 12-month price target representing a 68.0% increase from its March 31st price and
      • have a consensus BUY rating.
    • In addition, TLRY has:
      • a 68% chance of Financial Distress within 2 years,
      • a Short Interest of only 7%, 
      • an Insider Ownership of only 1.3% and
      • a current market capitalization of $1,560.0B.
    • Anheuser-Busch (BUD) has a $100 million joint venture with TLRY.
  3. Aurora (ACB): DOWN 16.7% in March; DOWN 21.3% YTD
    • 14 analysts:
      • have an average 12-month price target representing a 132.9% increase from its March 31st price and
      • have a consensus HOLD rating.
    • In addition, ACB has:
      • a 78% chance of Financial Distress within 2 years,
      • a Short Interest of only 8.7%, 
      • an Insider Ownership of only 0.12% and
      • a current market capitalization of $225.1M
    • received a Nasdaq notice on March 27th that the company is no longer in compliance with the minimum bid price requirement as the price has been below $1.00 for a period of 30 consecutive business days and has been granted a period of 180 calendar days or until September 20, 2023 to regain compliance with the minimum bid price requirement.
  4. OrganiGram (OGI): DOWN 19.0% in March; DOWN 17.9% YTD
    • 15 analysts:
      • have an average 12-month price target representing a 104.7% increase from its March 31st price and
      • have a consensus BUY rating.
    • In addition, OGI has:
      • a 49% chance of Financial Distress within 2 years,
      • a Short Interest of only 2.1%, 
      • an Insider Ownership of only 0.09% and
      • a current market capitalization of $204.2M
    • British American Tobacco (BTI) has invested C$221M in a product development partnership with OGI
  5. Canopy Growth (CGC): DOWN 24.2% in March; DOWN 2.9% YTD
    • 23 analysts:
      • have an average 12-month price target representing a 46.9% increase from its March 31st price and
      • have a consensus SELL rating.
    • In addition, CGC has:
      • a 53% chance of Financial Distress within 2 years,
      • a Short Interest of 16.1%, 
      • an Insider Ownership of only 0.09% and
      • a current market capitalization of $902.1M.
    • Constellation Brands (STZ) has a 39% stake in CGC.

In total, the sum total of the above 5 constituents in the munKNEE Canadian Cannabis LPs Index:

  • had an average price change of -13.5% in March and are now -17.2% YTD. That compares with -15.7% in March and -20.1% YTD for the munKNEE American Cannabis MSOs Index and
  • have an average 12-month price target representing a 68.1% increase from their average March 31st prices compared to the 7 constituents in the munKNEE American Cannabis MSOs Index which have a forward price target representing only a 230.4% increase.

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Disclosure: None 

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